Opening the main card at UFC 125 on Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, former PRIDE lightweight champion Takanori Gomi (32-6-0-1, 1-1 UFC) will hope to ride the wave of momentum stemming from his brutal knockout victory over Tyson Griffin at UFC on Versus II as he battles blue chip wrestler Clay Guida (27-11, 7-5 UFC). Gomi had previously lost in his debut with the promotion to former UFC lightweight contender Kenny Florian at UFC Fight Night 21 in March, but he bounced back in vintage fashion by using his vaunted power to dispose of Griffin in only 1:04 of the first round.
While Gomi has much to prove in his journey stateside, Guida has been a staple in the UFC for half a decade. He hasn’t been able to breach the upper-echelon of the division in his twelve-fight UFC career just yet, but a two-fight winning streak and a flair for entertaining fans with his high pace, relentless style of fighting could vault him into a much more important bout in the future. His most recent victory over Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Rafael dos Anjos not only confirms that Guida is improving, but that his move to Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico was the right call at this stage in his career.
For Gomi, there are still questions remaining as to whether he has the wrestling ability and motivation to compete at the high level that the UFC demands. Fans jumped at the opportunity to call out Gomi’s inability to stop Kenny Florian as proof that he has no place in the UFC, but his quick knockout of Tyson Griffin brought some fans back to the bandwagon as it showcased exactly why Gomi was so dominant in Japan for a number of years during his PRIDE reign.
“The Fireball Kid” is no Spring chicken anymore however, and at 32 years of age — it’s hard not to think about the aging factors that affect reflexes and power. Right now, there is no indication that he’s slowing down, but mental miscues in his training in the past could come back to haunt him if he doesn’t take Guida seriously.
There are also questions revolving around whether Guida’s style can stack up against Gomi’s power. Greg Jackson seems to be having an effect on Guida’s overall skill-set, but the fact remains that Guida has yet to improve his striking ability significantly enough to consider it a finishing threat in a fight. His wrestling is a tad above average at best, but he is miles ahead of the competition when it comes to relentlessly out working opponents until they falter.
I’m a huge fan of both Gomi and Guida, and it’s probably a requirement from Illinois residents (I am one of them) who love mixed martial arts to love Clay Guida as well. I fall into that category, but I also try to be as objective as possible when looking at these match-ups. One of the my biggest concerns about Guida is that he has never shown any improvement in his stand-up game from year to year. While he may tell you that he’s made strides in the gym, those improvements aren’t standing out during his bouts inside the Octagon, and wrestling and high energy will only get you so far before they fail. That’s evident in his roller coaster ride of a record.
Gomi has the perfect style to devastate Guida in this match-up. Most fans will probably scoff at this idealogy, but Gomi has the style to destroy “wrestleboxers” in spectacular fashion. His wrestling can be very good when he’s focused on a particular opponent, and his powerful hooks counter quickly and definitively. There are a lot of scenarios I can run through in my head of how this fight will go down, but many of them end with Gomi blasting Guida’s chin as he rushes in or as Gomi escapes the clinch. Best case scenario for Guida is to smother Gomi in pace and tenacity, and that’s not a far-fetched path to success. It makes this a very tough fight to call.
I have to go with my gut on this one. Takanori Gomi’s iron fist will smash Guida at some point in this fight, more than likely when Guida rushes into try to wrestle Gomi to the floor. Guida is awfully tough to finish, but if anyone is going to do it one sizzling punch of raw power — it’s Gomi. Guida has a solid chance of winning this fight as well, but I have to go with the proven finisher here.