In what should be a very revealing look at the old guard versus the new guard of the UFC lightweight division, former UFC lightweight champion Sean Sherk (33-4-1, 7-4 UFC) will return to the Octagon after over a year layoff to battle rising undefeated prospect Evan Dunham (11-0, 4-0 UFC) on Saturday night at UFC 119. As aforementioned, the battle will mark the return of Sherk after being defeated by current UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar at UFC 98 back in May of last year. Since that time, Sherk has been scheduled to fight on three separate occasions, only to pull out of the fight due to a rash of injuries.
Dunham, on the other hand, has been rather busy in the lower levels of the division, progressing steadily with victories over Marcus Aurelio, Efrain Escudero, and most recently Tyson Griffin at UFC 115. Surprisingly, the victory over Griffin has gave Dunham some considerable hype in the lead-up to this fight. Not only did he perform well in the stand-up game against Griffin, but he was able to gain takedowns and dominate Griffin in the grappling department. The performance has certainly put Dunham’s name in the picture at the upper levels of the lightweight division, and a win on Saturday night could secure a spot as the favorite for a shot at contention.
But before that can happen, Dunham will need to defeat an opponent who has only lost four times in his career. B.J. Penn, Matt Hughes, Georges St. Pierre, and Frankie Edgar all defeated Sherk, and all were either current or future champions in the UFC. Can Dunham put his name on that list of all-time greats?
We can add that question to a laundry list of questions this fight has produced. Will Sean Sherk return to elite status in the division, or will the time off in combination with his age put him on the downward spiral toward retirement? Can Evan Dunham truly be an upper-echelon talent? Can Sherk actually wrestle Dunham to the ground and win from top control? Those are a few of the interesting questions that will all be answers this weekend.
The style match-up is also appealing when thinking about it in the context of Dunham’s last performance. Sherk will obviously be looking to work his boxing skills if he can get inside, but he’s also very good at timing his opponent and shooting at key moments in a fight. The problem, however, is that Dunham has a solid 3″ advantage on top of being a southpaw who can grapple very effectively. He’ll more than likely be able to keep Sherk at bay with that reach, and I’m somewhat interested to see if Sherk is willing to implement a top control, ground and pound gameplan against a lengthy Dunham who grappled Griffin to bad positions constantly.
It’s an interesting fight when we think about what each fighter must strategize in their brains as the fight is going on, but to a crowd watching — this could turn into a rather dull stand-up battle to which neither competitor lands a downing blow. Desperation will more than likely set in, and I think Sherk is going to be feeling it as this fight wears on. Ring rust is going to be an issue, and the fact that Dunham combines reach, size, and a southpaw stance into one area of his game is going to frustrate Sherk.
I also think Dunham’s length and grappling skills will prove to be a challenge for Sherk to wade through if he happens to gain takedowns and work from top control. Sherk’s only option is to be aggressive, hope to land some solid punches as he rushes in, and either crumple Dunham or work his way to a decision victory by simply out working him. It’s possible, but I like Dunham’s odds here. I think he can implement a similar gameplan to the strategy that beat Griffin and eek out a decision victory on Saturday night.