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Should Chris Lytle Really Be Favored Over Matt Serra at UFC 119?

On the surface the odds seem ludicrous. Matt Serra, a former UFC welterweight champion, is the underdog going into UFC 119 this weekend in Indianapolis. The Ultimate Fighter season 4 winner is +120 in his rematch with journeyman Chris Lytle. Has the world gone mad? Or is there good reason for Serra fans to be very concerned? Serra made the case for his opponent in an interview with Jeremy Botter at the Houston Chronicle’s Brawl Sports:

Chris Lytle is so well rounded that it’s not like I really have to prepare for any one thing. Basically, I’ve been doing a ton of sparring and a ton of jiu-jitsu. He’s well-rounded, man. He’s dangerous on his feet and with submissions. Chris has had a different philosophy since the last time we fought. A lot has changed. I think Chris racked up a record with the fight of the night bonuses. He’s been on a tear and he’s won his last three fights.

The first fight between the two men crowned Serra as the season four Ultimate Fighter. Not only did he get a secure UFC contract, he got an immediate title shot which he took full adfvantage of, knocking out Georges St. Pierre in one of the sport’s most amazing upsets. The fight didn’t just change Serra’s life, it changed Lytle’s as well. He told Heavy.com that he knew it would be the defining fight of his career:

“I lost that split decision against Matt Serra and that was huge,” Lytle said. “He won the title after that, he won the hundred thousand dollar contract, sponsorship, and I didn’t get hardly anything out of that. I already know no matter what that I already lost more than I’m going to on my next fight if I lose, so that’s not even a thought in my head anymore.”

The thirty-six year old Serra has only fought twice in the last two years, losing a razor close decision to Hall of Famer Matt Hughes and knocking out a past his prime Frank Trigg at UFC 109. Botter baited Serra with a question about fighting the winner of the Hughes-BJ Penn fight later this fall, a contest featuring two men Serra has done battle with inside the cage. And while the Renzo Gracie blackbelt was interested, he isn’t looking ahead any further than Saturday night:

I would be foolish to look past Chris Lytle for anything else, because that guy is a warrior. You’re not going to find a bigger fan of Chris Lytle than me. I always watch his fights. He’s exciting. He’s the kind of guy that, when he’s on the card, you know it’s going to be an exciting fight. You know it.

So I’m not looking past him. I don’t know if it’s just a good luck thing or whatever, but I can’t look past him. All I’m looking forward to is Saturday night. After that? We’ll take whatever is in front of us at that point.

I’m ready for a battle. I’m not ready for a fight, because you don’t have a fight with Chris Lytle. You have a battle with him. That’s what I’m looking for.

The fight will be one of a handful of interesting matchups that pepper an otherwise unspectacular card. Although neither will earn an immediate title shot with a win, both will be one match away from the ultimate prize if they can secure a victory. How much has changed in the three and a half years since Serra eaked out a decision? We’ll soon see.