UFC 118 could probably be best described as an important night for the UFC’s lightweight division. Not only is there a chance that the crown at the top of the division could once again change hands in the main event showdown between Frankie Edgar and B.J. Penn, but Boston-native and two-time UFC lightweight contender Kenny Florian (14-4, 11-3 UFC) will have the opportunity to gain a third shot at the UFC lightweight title as he takes on NCAA Division I wrestler Gray Maynard (9-0-0-1, 7-0-0-1 UFC) in a #1 contender bout. Florian’s most recent battle for the UFC lightweight crown took place at UFC 101 against B.J. Penn, ending in a rear naked choke submission loss in the fourth round. Following the defeat, Florian jumped back into the mix, submitting both Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi at UFC 107 and UFC Fight Night 21 respectively.
Gray Maynard has also been on an impressive tear through the heart of the division. Remaining undefeated at 9-0, Maynard holds wins over Nate Diaz, Roger Huerta, Jim Miller, and even current champion Frankie Edgar. Almost all of his performances in the UFC have ended via decision, which has likely caused his slow progression toward the top of division in combination with his relatively small career fight count. But Maynard has now been given the opportunity to make the crucial jump into the spotlight, and his style certainly poses a threat to Florian’s dynamic capabilities.
From a historical point of view, the edge probably goes to Florian. Not only is he diverse in his skills on the feet, but he has great takedown defense while being a threat in his own right in reversing positions on the ground. He’s been more than capable against wrestling types like Guida, and he’s either held his own or dominated most of the competition he’s faced in the stand-up department. There is, however, one problem with that logic.
Maynard happens to possess some of the best pure wrestling that Florian has seen in his fight career with the exception of possibly Sean Sherk, and it doesn’t stop there. He’s also quite bulky for a lightweight, and we’re not talking about a bloated lightweight who will exhaust himself inside two rounds. We’re talking about a seasoned NCAA wrestler who will be well-conditioned and ready to explode for takedowns when the time comes.
But let’s not get carried away here. Maynard has his weaknesses like any other fighter in the division. Both Nate Diaz and Roger Huerta were able to have their moments against Maynard. In fact, many fans felt Diaz got the better of Maynard over the course of their three round battle at UFC Fight Night 20. Diaz’s reach in combination with his constant peppering of Maynard’s chin worked well in stifling Maynard’s attempts at landing huge overhands. Huerta wasn’t as successful, but he did have flashes of effectiveness with his hands. Florian will surely be studying that footage and hoping to exploit those weaknesses in Maynard’s defense.
In the end, this isn’t that difficult of a decision for me. Maynard hasn’t looked phenomenal in his last two performances. Sure, Nate Diaz’s reach would be a problem for anyone, but winging looping overhands like an out-of-shape Hermes Franca isn’t exactly the answer I’d like to see from someone eating jabs over and over. Florian won’t have the luxury of reach to stay out of range, but his footwork is more than enough to step in and out of Maynard’s range while battering him.
Maynard’s best chance is to use his wrestling and hope he can contain Florian for three rounds. If this were a five-round battle, I’d be much more comfortable with a Florian pick, but with a NCAA Division I wrestler involved in this match-up — the possibility of a neutralization tactic like pressing Florian into the fence or laying on him exists. Despite that, I think Florian uses his better striking ability to frustrate Maynard and earn himself another shot at the UFC lightweight strap.