UFC 118 will get things started on Saturday night in the welterweight division as Southpaw boxer Marcus Davis (17-6, 9-4 UFC) will hope to start a winning streak as he battles the newly transplanted Nate Diaz (12-5, 7-3 UFC). Both fighters have been on similar footing in recent performances as Davis has produced a 3-3 record in his last 6 appearances while Diaz is 2-3 in his last 5 bouts. Both fighters are, however, coming off victories. Davis dropped Jonathan Goulet at UFC 113 in the second round of their match-up while Diaz punched out Rory Markham in only 2:47 of the first round at UFC 111. This will be Diaz’s official welterweight debut as the bout with Markham was fought at a catchweight when Markham weighed in seven pounds over the 170 pound limit.
This match-up seems fairly uninteresting at a cursory glance. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that Davis’ gameplan will revolve around laying leather into Diaz’s chin, and Diaz will more than likely comply with a stand-up game as he suffers from what seems to be a hereditary cloud of judgment in his strategy. The fascinating appeal to this fight, however, is that Diaz has the boxing training and gameness to be a threat on the feet, and his immense reach in comparison to most fighters certainly gives him an edge.
There is more to consider though. While we’re all used to watching Nate’s brother Nick demolish opponents with peppering shots to the face and devastating body blows, Nate is beginning to show that he can work on that level as well. With success comes the stubborn attitude that he can box with anyone, and that may not be the best gameplan against a boxer like Davis. Diaz will need to also deal with the fact that he’ll be on hostile ground as Boston is Davis’ old stomping ground when he boxed professionally in his youthful days. Crowd support can sometimes keep the adrenaline going for a fighter, and it could give Davis the extra energy in the later rounds.
Interestingly enough, Diaz may benefit from considering the strategy of taking down Davis and threatening his limbs on the ground. After all, when’s the last time Davis actually fought a grappler who actually tried to grapple? I might actually argue that he’s never faced such a challenge, mainly because Davis has been placed in entertaining match-ups for the sole purpose of doing exactly that — entertaining.
When you actually put a Diaz in the cage however, anything is possible. Nate can probably win on the feet and on the floor in this fight. I only say that because I believe Davis has began to decline with age. He doesn’t take a punch as well as he used to, and he’s certainly more susceptible to being battered in the clinch. While he looks like a bulked up behemoth of a fighter, we’ve seen far too many times that he can be bullied around the cage and bombed by precision strikes. Diaz will provide those precision strikes from range, and Davis will have to explode in order to catch Diaz. Unfortunately, that could open him up for a world of hurt on the ground.
With all of that said, Diaz should pick up the victory on Saturday night. Whether or not it’s on the ground is the question. I’m going to have a little faith here. I think Davis will be forced to be very aggressive in the stand-up game in order to get around Diaz’s reach, and when that happens — a ground struggle will take place. In those scrambles, I believe Diaz will either secure a dominant position and put Davis in huge danger or catch him in a submission.