UFC Hall of Famer Matt Hughes (44-7, 17-5 UFC) plans to prove that age doesn’t necessarily mean the end for the former two-time UFC Welterweight champion as he will battle Renzo Gracie Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Ricardo Almeida (12-3, 5-3 UFC) in a somewhat relevant welterweight showdown. Hughes defeated Renzo Gracie at UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi back in April, and he squeaked out a decision win over the first American-born Renzo Gracie black belt Matt Serra in May of last year. Are we seeing a trend here? Not only are both wins against coaches of Ricardo Almeida, but the UFC seems to be putting Hughes through a Kazushi Sakuraba phase of his career. He isn’t quite the “The Gracie Hunter”, but defeating the mentor and then his students is definitely a slap in the face.
Hughes will make an attempt to continue that trend and winning streak as he battles Almeida, a third-degree black belt under Renzo Gracie and the former King of Pancrase Middleweight champion. Almeida has had quite the run in the UFC since returning to the sport following a four-year layoff from 2004 to 2008. He defeated Rob Yundt, Matt Horwich, Kendall Grove, and Matt Brown over the course of his five-fight UFC career, losing only once to eventual middleweight contender Patrick Cote via split decision. Furthermore, despite the success at middleweight, Almeida dropped down to 170 pounds for his last fight against Brown. This bout will be his second fight at his new weight class.
It’s obvious that Almeida stands to gain a little more traction in the division with a win over Hughes than vice versa. After all, Almeida is slightly younger, presents a highly-developed Brazilian jiu-jitsu grappling game, and could potentially make a run at the top of the division. Hughes, on the other hand, seems to be slowing down considerably. He isn’t the brute force thrashing machine from top control that he once was when he became a two-time champion, but that’s to be expected at age 36.
That isn’t to say, however, that Hughes is completely used up. While I doubt he’ll ever achieve the level of Georges St. Pierre, he still has some fights left in him that could be great challenges for the rising talents of the division. Almeida falls into the category of rising prospects, despite being at a ripe age of 33 years old.
Both fighters bring obvious gameplans to the table when we look at how this fight will probably go down. Hughes is the All-American wrestler, and top control is his church. Almeida, the third-degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, will either aim to gain top control before Hughes can, or he’ll work from his back after pulling guard or being toppled by Hughes. In any case, Almeida will look for an opening for a submission off his back or from side control.
Serra was surprisingly effective off his back against Hughes at UFC 98, and for such a small welterweight who doesn’t possess much length — it was a bit surprising to see Hughes have trouble from the top. Almeida’s 6’0″ frame will have an easier time in that position, and that fact that he’s a 3rd degree black belt with solid positional control makes this a very tough fight for a less powerful Hughes to win.
With that said, it’s still a tough fight to call. While Almeida seems like the pick for me, he has never been that impressive in victory. Controlling Brazilian jiu-jitsu technique is the name of his game, and while he may be able to pull off a nice guillotine choke every once in awhile, Hughes is far too seasoned and smart to succumb to that. Surprisingly, we may see both men badly kick box each other for three rounds, and I’d give Almeida the nod in that type of contest.
In any case, I have to go with Ricardo Almeida. I think he can out grapple Hughes on the ground and control him positionally for three rounds, and I believe, if it comes down to it, he can out punch Hughes on the feet and eek out a decision by using his lengthier frame.