In welterweight action, Boston-born scrapper John Howard (14-4, 4-0 UFC) will put his current seven-fight winning streak on the line as he meets Midwestern-bred wrestler Jake Ellenberger (22-5, 1-1 UFC) in a match-up that could potentially vault one of these fighters into a marquee match-up with a victory. Howard’s last appearance ended in spectacular fashion as he leaped over Daniel Roberts‘ guard and knocked him out cold from an aerial shot that earned him knockout of the night honors. While that battle was fairly lopsided, his previous two victories have been debated by some to be two of his most lackluster wins inside the Octagon, and those performances have been the root of fans believing Howard will eventually fail before he reaches any relevance in the division.
Most notably, the split decision victory over Tamdan McCrory was seen by many as lucky, but the Dennis Hallman fight should probably take the cake in the “luck” category. After being beaten for two rounds by Hallman, Howard landed a miraculous left hook with only seconds remaining in the fight, stunning Hallman and opening him up for another huge blow that knocked him out cold. Howard’s knack for clutch performances is certainly something to think about, but he’s going to have a very tough time against an able power puncher and wrestler in Jake Ellenberger.
Ellenberger is about as tough a customer as you can draw in the UFC’s welterweight division. He has knockout ability in his hands, great wrestling ability, and good enough conditioning to press the pace for most of the fight. He stays rather compact in his stance, throws solid uppercuts in close quarters, and will devastate Howard if he tries to close distance quickly without keeping his hands up. Condit was the recipient of some of those blows due to his ignorance, and Howard will need to avoid being sucked into that type of close quarters combat.
But like any good fighter, Howard has a mean streak in him as well. Close quarters combat may suit him just fine in this battle, and while he does have some Brazilian jiu-jitsu chops along with a Muay Thai background — boxing is his primary means to defeating the competition. Ellenberger is no slouch either, and Howard isn’t exactly terrible in the wrestling department either. This could become a real war on the feet.
Unfortunately for Howard, I think Ellenberger is the better fighter. On two occasions, Howard nearly lost, one via what many deemed a bad decision by the judges and another by a miraculous come-from-behind knockout with only seconds remaining. Unpredictability has certainly helped him along the way, but Ellenberger never been knocked out in his career.
I like Jake in this fight. I think he has the punching ability to be a legitimate threat, although I think Howard is definitely the better boxer. Ellenberger does counter very well, but his wrestling will prove to be the problem for Howard for the majority of this fight. Look for Jake to relentlessly work Howard against the fence and on the ground on his way to a decision victory.