Matt Brown (11-8, 4-2 UFC) may or may not be excited to be battling fellow Midwestern-born UFC veteran Chris Lytle (28-17-5, 7-9 UFC) on the UFC 116 main card on Saturday night. On one hand, Lytle has been involved in four “Fight of the Night” bouts, but on the other hand — he’s also taken home a total of seven bonuses including two “Submission of the Night” bonuses and a “Knockout of the Night” bonus. For Brown, this could be a very lucrative encounter that also gets him back on track in the division rankings, or it could be a major setback that puts him on a losing streak.
Interestingly enough, this bout is a rematch of an August 11, 2007 showdown in the United Fight League in Lytle’s hometown of Indianapolis, Indiana. Lytle submitted Brown via guillotine choke, but both men moved on to stints with the UFC. Lytle made his tenth appearance with the UFC in his next fight while Brown made his way into The Ultimate Figher house in the seventh season.
Since that time, Lytle has been involved in some of the classic wars in recent UFC history, and he’s fought some of the very best the division has to offer in Thiago Alves and Josh Koscheck. Despite losing to those upper-echelon level fighters, Lytle did manage to blow away Kyle Bradley at UFC 81 via knockout, edge out Paul Taylor via decision at UFC 89, defeat Kevin Burns via decision at The Ultimate Fighter Finale 9, and submit Brian Foster via kneebar in his most recent performance at UFC 110.
Brown won his initial contest with the UFC in a TKO victory over Matt Arroyo at The Ultimate Figher Finale 7, but he dropped a close split decision to South Korea’s Dong Hyun Kim at UFC 88. Determined to become one of the few non-winner TUF cast members to succeed in the UFC, Brown went on a three-fight tear, submitting Ryan Thomas at UFC 91, crushing Pete Sell in a lopsided knockout victory at UFC 96, and impressively punching out James Wilks at UFC 105. He stepped up in competition at UFC 111, but he couldn’t handle the submission game of New Jersey’s Ricardo Almeida. He’ll look to rebound from that loss at UFC 116.
Lytle should definitely have the advantage in this fight, but the mental aspect to his game is something that concerns me. The Chris Lytle who’s had enough of the decisions and comes out with blazing fast overhands and a lot of aggressiveness is great for entertainment, but it can be the beginning of the end. Conditioning has always been a concern when Lytle explodes out of the gate, firing on all cylinders. If that’s the case, he’ll need to smash Brown quickly before becoming a zombie to a battle with attrition.
In reality, I think Lytle either looks for the submission, or works a quick inside, outside boxing gameplan to frustrate Brown. Lytle’s chin has been an asterisk on his list of skills, as in it’s the one thing that you can never throw out in a fight. Even in battles in which he’s clearly outmatched on the feet, his chin keeps him alive. And as we saw in the Mike Russow vs. Todd Duffee encounter, all you need is one good punch, survivability, and a little bit of luck to succeed.
Brown has improved quite a bit in his punching prowess, and he remains one of the tougher competitors in the middle-tier of the division as he’s able to take punches in order to give them. His grappling isn’t phenomenal, but he has enough knowledge to escape precarious positions. But against Lytle, I think he’s easily outclassed in the submission game however, and that may be where Lytle sees himself taking home a bonus and winning this fight via a stoppage.
I want to give Matt Brown a fair shake as he’s a fighter many of us respect for his toughness and good-hearted personality, but a fight is a fight. Lytle has the professional boxing background and proven hands in the cage to frustrate Brown. While he isn’t the fleetest of foot in the boxing arena as Marcus Davis proved, I think he’s quicker than Brown.
Depending on how Lytle wants to win this, I’ll expect a slugfest as Lytle seems more likely to want to push entertainment to the fans against a name opponent over submitting Brown quickly. In any case, I think Lytle can end it either way. I’ll take Chris Lytle via TKO.