In the Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Werdum main event, two old era heavyweights who still have the mettle to compete in the new era of mixed martial arts will go toe-to-toe in a very intriguing stylistic match-up. As the event’s name reveals, the last PRIDE heavyweight champion and one of the all-time greatest heavyweights the sport has ever produced in Fedor Emelianenko (32-1-0-1, 1-0 SF) will battle ADCC grappling champion Fabricio Werdum (13-4-1, 2-0 SF) in a showdown that ultimately leads the victor to a collision course with behemoth Dutch wrecker Alistair Overeem.
Fedor’s invincible aura has met some resistance in recent bouts, but he’s also managed to become quite the spectacular finisher with age. His most recent victory over Brett Rogers saw him succumb to Rogers’ strength and size at one moment during the fight, putting him on the end of some brutal ground and pound punching. But history revealed itself once again as Fedor’s perseverance pushed him through the adversity.
Fedor landed his fair share of damaging blows to Rogers throughout the fight, but the devastating shot that Fedor landed in the second round that downed Rogers was absolutely mesmerizing to watch. While Fedor isn’t known historically for knocking out opponents cold, he has always had the power to stun his victims and transition to the submission quickly to take advantage. As of late however, he hasn’t needed those extra seconds.
Andrei Arlovski found some success against Fedor by using speed and solid footwork, but the dangerous power of Fedor needed only a split second to land a booming overhand after Arlovski mistakenly thought he could finish the Russian off with a flying knee in the ropes. Arlovski was out before he hit the canvas. Six months before that, Fedor mauled Tim Sylvia in 0:36 seconds. Impressed? Some fans haven’t been.
It’s tough to argue that Fedor is losing his step, but there are some signs that he is possibly entering an era of heavyweights that may be far too strong and big for him. Fedor, a fighter who generally weighs in around 230 pounds, has a disadvantage against a fighter as big as Brett Rogers, but as Royce Gracie proved long ago — technique can defeat size and strength. That motto has been an integral part of Fedor’s game.
Fabricio Werdum brings a very dangerous background to this fight in which Fedor’s technique, at least on the floor, is trumped by Werdum’s credentials as a high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who has won multiple ADCC championships. Fedor hasn’t faced such an elite grappler since PRIDE Shockwave 2004 when he faced Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and there is a question as to whether Fedor’s ground game will be as sharp as it should be due to the lack of grappling opposition.
Werdum has defeated Mike Kyle and Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva in his two appearances with Strikeforce, but he was knocked out by a relative newcomer who has turned into a significant name in the UFC in Junior Dos Santos at UFC 90. He did defeat Gabriel Gonzaga and Brandon Vera in impressive performances at UFC 80 and UFC 85 respectively, showing off a much improved stand-up game.
With all of the background laid out, Fedor still remains a heavy favorite. He’s a fighter who was undeniably great at every skill in the book before anyone really realized that they needed to be as well-rounded to sit at the pinnacle of any division. Fedor is not only a heavy, accurate power puncher, but his grappling ability and quickness in his transition game is dangerous to even high-level grapplers.
In any fight featuring “The Last Emperor”, many of the questions lie with his opponent. The same applies here. Can Werdum actually hurt Fedor with his striking base, and if not — can he get this fight to the ground and work a submission game against Fedor?
I’m not very keen on Werdum being effective in striking with Fedor. Many of his wins in the UFC came from his aggressiveness to gain the clinch and work his improved Muay Thai, but Fedor’s strength in the clinch and explosive power in his hands should probably deter Werdum from flying into the wheel house with knees firing. In reality, Werdum’s best chance is to counter Fedor’s initial strikes, and that’s been a tough concept for everyone.
I’d look for Fedor to avoid the ground at all costs, but I wouldn’t look past Fedor punishing Werdum with a ground and pound clinic if he catches Werdum and stuns him onto his back. Werdum’s best opportunity is to gain top control or catch Fedor in a guillotine from the clinch. I wouldn’t bet on that happening, but top control isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Don’t get me wrong. Werdum has more than a slim chance to win here. He’s a top notch grappler with solid experience against great competition, but a lot of confidence was lost in his performance against Antonio Silva. While he did manage to win, there were many times during that fight in which I thought to myself — Fedor crushes the Werdum that showed up to this fight. Werdum must perform at a higher level, and he just doesn’t seem to have the skills to beat top of the division fighters.
Fedor outclasses Werdum on the feet, stuns him at some point during the first round, and bombs him with brutal ground and pound that finishes the fight. I don’t see Werdum hurting Fedor as he’s never been a proven knockout threat from range, and if he wades into the clinch — Fedor will have the strength to toss him out of the way and into a dangerous position. Fedor via TKO, Round 1.