In one of the most highly-anticipated battles among fight fans that we’ll see this year, current UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (16-0, 8-0 UFC) will once again step into the Octagon against 2005 PRIDE middleweight Grand Prix champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (18-4, 2-2 UFC) in a rematch of their hotly-debated, controversial championship title bout at UFC 104. Machida edged out Rua by an unanimous decision with a score of 48-47 on all three judges’ scorecards, but many fighters, writers, fans, and even UFC president Dana White expressed their feelings that Rua should have been awarded the title.
Due to the controversy surrounding the decision, the UFC felt a rematch was in order. While many rematches have been received with moans and groans from fans, the rematch between Machida and Rua has generally been accepted with open arms. Not only does it give Rua a chance to prove he is the best fighter in the division, but it has some added intrigue of seeing exactly how Machida plans to counter Rua’s tactics and how Rua will answer back.
In their first encounter, Rua had a lot to prove as his win over Mark Coleman at UFC 93 wasn’t as impressive as many people had hoped, and his knockout victory over Chuck Liddell was passed over as Liddell being well past his prime. While Rua had, at the very least, shaken off the criticism of his loss to Forrest Griffin at UFC 76 with better performances, there wasn’t much hope for him to be the answer to Machida’s elusive style of fighting.
Fortunately, Rua’s speed and conditioning had returned along with a phenomenal Muay Thai base. His kicks were quick, heavy, and very hard for Machida to pick up. While we didn’t see the kicks render Machida completely useless like that of Urijah Faber when he battled Jose Aldo, they were damaging enough to impede Machida’s movement forward.
Machida was able to keep up with Rua, but his countering relied heavily on landing combinations to Rua’s chin from a ranged position. Lacking any real power in his blows due to the incoming kicks from Rua, the fight ended in a decision that really was the result of the judges having a different opinion on how well kicks played into the scoring. While I thought Machida won the fight narrowly, it was way too close to call. A more definitive edge will hopefully come from this rematch.
It’s very tough to see how this fight goes any differently. Rua’s camp has put a lot of emphasis on his kicks, but they’ve also hinted at other pieces of his skill-set that could come into play. I’m willing to bet his kicks will set up takedowns in the latter parts of this fight, and Rua may try to use his Brazilian jiu-jitsu background to test Machida after his legs have been punished. A lot of the talk has been surrounding Rua in this fight, but not much has been said about Machida’s possible strategy in this rematch.
While Machida and his trainers have basically stated that a similar gameplan will be in effect, I also have a feeling the so-called “small” change won’t be that small. Countering Rua’s kicks with straight, down-the-middle combinations will more than likely come into play, but I imagine Machida’s stance won’t be as sunk in as his last encounter. I think we’ll see a lot more movement laterally from Machida, and I think he’ll be a bit more successful in landing his own kicks and punches from various angles as he moves.
One of the key attributes to Machida’s game in the past has been his ability to throw quick punches and kicks while moving laterally, and he has an uncanny ability of throwing combination kicks with the same movement. There really aren’t any light heavyweights that can achieve this, but Rua is probably the best guy to mimic that type of offensive arsenal. Unfortunately, Rua seemed rather content in moving around the cage with Machida, hitting a point in which both men went toe-to-toe, and then unleashing his kicks. I don’t know if Machida is willing to do that in this fight.
Much like Frankie Edgar, I think Machida’s fleet footed ways are the key here. He didn’t look as quick against Rua in their first encounter, but I fully expect him to be moving in and out of range, countering, and laterally throwing kicks as Rua moves to line up Machida.
But this isn’t the only way I see this fight going. The clinch is also an important area in this fight. Machida has some very solid offensive weapons in the clinch, and his ability to mix up his attacks make him one of the most effective in the division. Rua is equally devastating in that arena, but he was unable to unload his famous PRIDE aggression on Machida in the first showdown. It will be especially tough for Rua if Machida comes out a bit quicker as he can move in, gain an advantageous clinch position, dole out his damage, and escape.
I’m ultimately going with Machida in this second encounter. While I realize a lot of people are high on Rua due to his effective gameplan in his last fight, I don’t see Machida allowing that type of damage to happen again. I think he’ll either move a lot more from range and make Rua throw strikes from angles in which he won’t be as effective, or he’ll try to punish him in the clinch.
The question is whether Rua will actually bring a completely different strategy into this fight, and that’s really where this fight becomes rather interesting. We haven’t seen a lot of action involving Machida on his back, and we do know that Rua has been very successful on the floor. I don’t foresee that type of fight happening, but if Rua can be damaging with his kicks early — I wouldn’t put it past Rua to put Machida on his back in the late rounds.
I like Machida here, but I’m very curious to see Rua work in this fight. It should be a classic, so tune in on Saturday night at 10:00 PM EST for UFC 113 on pay-per-view.