In the main event of the evening, WEC Featherweight champion and Nova União product José Aldo (16-1, 6-0 WEC) will make his first title defense against WEC poster boy and Sacramento-based Urijah Faber (23-3, 7-2 WEC) in a battle that will feature two of the quickest 145 pound fighters in the world. The clash is being called one of the most highly-anticipated match-ups that the WEC has ever produced on a card tailor made to produce buys from existing WEC fans and crossover UFC fans. Will it live up to the hype?
Interestingly enough, it’s tough to gauge whether or not this is an even test between two of the WEC’s best fighters. Faber’s last two losses were to the former WEC Featherweight champion Mike Brown, a man that Jose Aldo completely dominated in a little over six minutes of action at WEC 44. Looking at that from a topical point of view would make one believe this is a lopsided match-up from the beginning, but a closer look certainly raises some questions and builds some intrigue into what could happen on Saturday night.
Their first encounter ended with an erratic Urijah Faber throwing wild, aggressive strikes and subsequently eating a punch from Brown that floored him. Lucky? Perhaps. The second showdown was a much closer affair, and Faber showed that he has the skills to better Brown in some areas of the fight. Speed was an issue in the stand-up game for Brown, and as we saw in Brown’s title fight with Aldo — it seems to be a recurring issue for him.
Faber may be a quicker puncher than Brown, but how will he fair against the ultra-explosive Jose Aldo? With a history of proven power and a highlight reel of brutal knockouts, Faber will more than likely want to avoid the stand-up department if he can. Recent interviews have hinted that Faber’s plan seems to be leaning toward takedowns and ground tactics. Will Faber be able to successfully accomplish that sort of strategy?
In my mind, Faber doesn’t have many options in this fight. His quickness is probably his biggest asset along with his unpredictable combinations in the stand-up game. Unfortunately, Aldo seems to be even more unpredictable with a side of explosiveness that puts fans into a “Holy sh*t!” aura for a good minute after Aldo flatlines an opponent.
The ground sounds like a great idea in theory, but it really won’t be known whether it’s a good idea until we see both fighters mix it up in the clinch or someone gains a successful takedown. Aldo seemed nearly impossible to takedown for the bulkier Mike Brown at WEC 44, but Brown also worked from the clinch early with Aldo. If Faber can time a good shot and put Aldo on his back, he may be able to work from top control and put Aldo in danger.
Ultimately, the debate turns back to the ground control that Faber displayed in the Brown fight. He was unable to dominate Brown like he had against past opponents, and Brown’s experience on the ground coupled with his strength caused those problems to occur. Aldo will provide much of the same resistance.
While I think Faber has a chance to win this fight, it’s going to require some improvements. Aldo will be very tough for Faber to take down, and he’ll eat a lot of blows for his efforts. Aldo has also shown some brilliance in his stand-up game, and some fans have even likened him to a developing Anderson Silva in the way he moves and throws punches so quickly and accurately. Faber will need to continually keep his guard up and punish Aldo at any instance he can in the clinch or on the ground.
To be perfectly honest, I personally don’t see how Faber wins here. While I think he has the speed to be threatening at times, I think Aldo is coming into his own and going to rule the division for quite some time. The real x-factor is Aldo’s brutal knees and knockout ability. Faber isn’t immune to those strikes in the clinch, and I really don’t see any reason why Aldo couldn’t land a Swanson-esque knee to Faber’s forehead if he tries to shoot from distance. Aldo has way too many tools in my mind, and we haven’t even seen him off his back for any extended period of time. He may just be that good. I’ll take Jose Aldo via TKO.