In the main event on Saturday night at Strikeforce: Nashville, former PRIDE middleweight and welterweight champion Dan Henderson (25-7) will make his debut with Strikeforce against current Strikeforce middleweight champion Jake Shields (24-4-1) in a highly-anticipated battle for the middleweight belt. A victory brings with it some major upside for both fighters as Shields will be a free agent following the bout and Henderson would continue to popularize himself with casual fans everywhere.
Henderson enters the contest riding a three-fight win streak in the UFC. He defeated Brazilian jiu-jitsu leg breaker Rousimar Palhares at UFC 88, won a split decision over UFC veteran Rich Franklin at UFC 93, and famously bombed Michael Bisping with his patented right hand at UFC 100. Following the Bisping knockout, Henderson gained some considerable hype from the casual fanbase, and it could be interesting to see what type of numbers Strikeforce can gain from his appearance on CBS.
Shields has impressively won thirteen straight fights with his most recent victories coming against Nick Thompson, dangerous striker Paul Daley, the heavy-handed Robbie Lawler, and the resilient Jason “Mayhem” Miller. Interestingly enough, Shields drew criticism for his inability to finish off Miller, and Miller’s ability to reverse his attempts, escape from full mount positions, and slip Shields off his back on multiple occasions. There was also a question as to whether Shields lacked the power to finish Miller from such advantageous positions.
Those criticisms have been one of the major focal points of analysis for fans leading into this fight. Henderson is considered to be one of the more powerful middleweights in the sport, and he also happens to be a middleweight cutting down to 185 pounds while Shields has been a natural welterweight fighter for most of his career. The move up to middleweight was brought on by the lack of options that Strikeforce has for Shields.
With the added muscle and size, many fans have leaned heavily in favor of Dan Henderson in this fight as it is believed he has the wrestling pedigree to stuff Shields and avoid being dominated on the floor. He also happens to be a heavy favorite in the striking department, an area in which Shields has always been lacking. Early rumors indicated that Shields may, in fact, try to unveil some much improved striking ability and try to move in and out — away from Henderson’s massive power. Interviews have revealed he plans to dominate on the ground. Sounds like your typical fighter head games to me.
Henderson isn’t immune to faster punches or strategists on the feet, but he has an iron chin and brutal knockout power. Over the course of five rounds, it’s going to be a real test for Shields to avoid being crushed. I’d also be very interested to see if Shields has the skills to avoid Henderson’s Greco-Roman clinch in the fence. Dan has been very effective in using it to push off and land overhands as he separates.
To be perfectly honest, I think there is some truth to the criticism that Shields lacks strength in a fight with Henderson. I think he’s definitely more technical than Henderson on the floor, but Henderson has the experience and background to avoid those dangers.
Ultimately, I think Henderson is going to have a typical evening in the cage. He’ll bully Shields around, control the pace, and look for the overhand right while stuffing Shields’ takedown attempts. Shields will have a tough time dragging Henderson to the floor, and Henderson’s size and strength will become a huge problem as the fight progresses. I’ll take Henderson in the later rounds, maybe 3rd or 4th by TKO.