The first of three main event caliber match-ups that will be featured on Strikeforce’s Nashville main card on Saturday, April 17th from the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee should be a true hardcore fan pleaser. DREAM lightweight champion and Japan’s premier mixed martial arts talent Shinya Aoki (23-4, 1 NC) will battle Strikeforce lightweight champion Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez in Melendez’s first defense since unifying the belts with a win over Josh Thomson back in December.
The showdown will be the first major step up against American competition for Aoki, and it could prove to be a fight that could determine whether Aoki’s arguable status as a top three lightweight in the world is justifiable. Furthermore, it should give us some insight as to whether Aoki’s style of fighting can survive against the strong wrestlers that dominate the upper echelon of American lightweights.
Interestingly enough, the only wrestling we may see in this fight is Melendez’s ability to stuff takedowns. In recent interviews in the lead-up to the event, Melendez has made it clear that he wants to avoid Aoki’s unique and dynamic submission game at all costs. Conversely, Aoki will be trying to do exactly that — put Melendez in his world on the floor by any means possible.
There is some interesting assumptions that have been made by both fighters that really hint to how this fight may end. Aoki has talked about Melendez’s aggression being a key to victory while Melendez believes he’s simply strong enough to maintain his legs throughout the five-round battle.
Melendez will more than likely be highly passive in terms of moving forward in this fight. As evident in the Josh Thomson fight, Melendez didn’t move in aggressively for the kill as he would have against lesser opponents. Instead, he used brilliant range tactics to pick apart Thomson, a gameplan he’ll likely implement against a sub-par striker like Aoki. He did, however, move forward in some instances, and Aoki could take advantage if Melendez actually tries to put more power to Aoki’s chin.
The major problem most fighters have with Aoki’s skill-set is his ability to find ways to put fighters to the mat. Not only does he have deceptive strength and speedy transitions, his creativity in how he brings fights to the floor is impressive. As we saw with Gesias Cavalcante, an aggressive puncher with solid Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Aoki was able to pull guard from a distance and dominate him positionally for the rest of the fight.
History doesn’t help us much either in determining a winner. Aoki has only lost to Joachim Hansen and Hayato Sakurai in the last four years, and his most recent loss to Sakurai was a move up to welterweight. Sakurai may have had the blueprint for defeating Aoki as he came out in a mad rush and bombed the DREAM lightweight champion. Hansen snuck in a powerful downward strike from the top to knock Aoki out.
Melendez dropped fights to Josh Thomson and Mitsuhiro Ishida in his career. Thomson was able to use a ranged kicking attack that completely frustrated and disposed of Melendez while Ishida simply outwrestled him to a decision. Melendez was able to avenge both losses however.
Ishida’s first match-up with Melendez would hint at the potential for Aoki to dominate positionally, and I truly believe that’s where this fight may end up. Aoki, while not having a proven granite chin, is pretty durable. He’s also very creative in trapping opponents in his limbs and putting them on the defensive, which effectively limits the amount of damage he sustains.
Some other intangibles include Aoki’s complaints about the lengthy press obligations. Could that be a factor here? I doubt it, but it’s something to think about.
Picks?
I’ve run with the objective favorites for most of the year. I’ve laid out where I think each fighter is stronger, and which fighter I believe can overcome his or her opponent’s strengths. Overall, I haven’t had a bad year. That even includes Melvin Manhoef, who I did objectively pick over Robbie Lawler… and it was working out in dominating fashion until the “knack” cracked his chin. My flashback has subsided.
I’m taking Shinya Aoki in this fight. While I think Melendez will probably be very successful in maintaining range and peppering Aoki, Aoki has proven me wrong way too many times. I was quoted as saying such brilliant analysis to friends such as: “Look at little boy Aoki, Eddie Alvarez has man strength in comparison.”
Wrong. Aoki is a brilliant submission grappler, and he’s probably one of the most dynamic and creative grapplers in this sport. His control from the back and positioning is next to none in the sport. The only question is whether he can put Melendez to the ground. If he can’t, Melendez should take this pretty easily.