The first of two championship showdowns on the UFC 112 main card will feature a lightweight title bout between current UFC champion B.J. “The Prodigy” Penn (15-5-1, 11-4-1 UFC) and number one contender Frankie “The Answer” Edgar (11-1, 6-1 UFC) in a match-up that will undoubtedly be viewed by many fans as lopsided. Edgar enters the contest following a victories over Matt Veach, Sean Sherk, and Hermes Franca while Penn defended his title at UFC 107 by destroying Diego Sanchez over the course of five rounds, ending Sanchez’s night in the fifth and final round via TKO.
The storyline is a standard one in the context of a B.J. Penn title defense. Edgar will enter the Octagon as a heavy underdog to the dominating striking and unheralded Brazilian jiu-jitsu prowess of Penn, and he’ll need to figure out some way to impose his will and smother Penn with pace and aggression. Unfortunately, not one lightweight has been able to put together the blueprint for defeating B.J. Penn, and only Kenny Florian was able to give Penn some problems in their UFC 101 battle.
But most fans would say those problems were negligible. Florian’s plan of pressing Penn to the cage and trying to topple him to the ground proved to only lengthen the fight into the championship rounds, rounds in which Penn finally was able to find an opening and submit Florian via rear naked choke.
So, what does Frankie Edgar have within his arsenal that could potentially give Penn problems? The consensus thought around the mixed martial arts community has focused on the striking of Frankie Edgar. While I think Edgar will ultimately succumb to Penn’s power and accuracy, I would agree that Edgar’s true shot at gaining the title from Penn is by a monumental performance in the stand-up portion of this fight.
The victory over Sean Sherk is the sole reason many fans have clasped to this idea that Edgar could be a legitimate threat to Penn’s chin, and following the loss to Gray Maynard — it was apparent that his striking was much quicker and accurate in the Sherk fight. Interestingly enough, both Penn and Edgar have fought Sherk with different results. But the preceding blows to Sherk’s chin were all the same.
I’m not going to delve deep into this fight because I really believe Penn is the better fighter in every facet of this match-up. Edgar’s striking will need to be crisp, quick, and powerful in order to defeat Penn, and while he has shown speed increases in his blows — he’s never been the power puncher. Unless he can frustrate Penn over five rounds with his quickness, Edgar won’t have much of an answer for anything Penn brings to the table.
Penn’s jiu-jitsu will likely be even more challenging as the fight wears on into the championship rounds, and if Edgar’s gameplan turns into a desperate attempt to takedown Penn — it’s Penn’s fight to lose. Look for Penn to throw the quick jab and counter with heavy shots that batter Edgar’s face. Edgar won’t quit though, so I’m going to bank on Penn finishing in the later rounds of this fight.