No one will accuse the UFC of subtlety when it comes to naming their events. This Saturday’s “Invincible” card features B.J. Penn and Anderson Silva, who are looking to defend their titles for the fourth and sixth times, respectively. The books have inserted them as heavy favorites, with lines ranging between -700 and -800. They, for all intents and purposes, look invincible.
So what are underdogs Frankie Edgar and Demian Maia to do?
When faced with overwhelming opposition, it’s important to embrace your role as David. To wit, from Smart Football:
It’s a well-worn belief that underdogs — i.e. the kind of severely outmatched opponent that cannot win without some good luck — must employ some risky strategies to succeed. This has long been believed but now we have a reason, though it also teaches us that there is a price to this bargain. The underdog absolutely must take the riskier strategy, whether by throwing more and more aggressively, by onside kicking, or doing flea-flickers and trick plays. They have to get lucky. In the process, however, they also increase the chance that they will get blown out, possibly quite badly. But isn’t that worth the price of a shot at winning?
In short, you can’t beat Goliath at his own game; you’ve got to bring your sling shot.
Unlike most heavy underdogs, Demian Maia has a clear and defined strategy: get the fight to the floor. He can’t reenact Thales Leites’s strategy at UFC 97. Leites’s gameplan consisted of telegraphed shots from distance and flopping to his back whenever Silva turned up the pressure. He fought cautiously.
Maia cannot be intimidated by Silva’s power or prowess standing. He must wade through Silva’s strikes and clinch up where he can work for takedowns, trips, or guard pulling. This strategy increases the odds that Silva embarrasses him Forrest Griffin-style, but looks much better than the alternative of a guaranteed loss.
The case for Frank Edgar is much more tenuous. Edgar doesn’t have an edge over Penn anywhere, and the Hawaiian has never been in danger at 155. It’s no stretch to say that if Edgar tries to fight Penn with an orthodox strategy, there is zero chance he beats Penn on his own accord.
If I’m drawing up the gameplan for Team Edgar, I’m going to take the Georges St-Pierre’s strategy from UFC 94 and tweak it for Frankie. St-Pierre muscled Penn in the clinch to wear down the Hawaiian in the early rounds, allowing Georges to open up as the fight went on. Frankie doesn’t have the 20-25 pound weight advantage of GSP, so we’re going to have to figure out another way break Penn down.
This means Edgar should concentrate on two things. One, work the body. Leg kicks, knees, hooks. Attack the legs. Throw enough shots to his head to mask your strategy, but concentrate below the neck. In addition to testing his cardio, you’re also avoiding Penn’s unheralded strengths – his head movement and iron chin.
Two, push the pace. This is what Diego Sanchez wanted to do at UFC 107 until Penn blasted him out of the gate. Frankie needs to shoot on Penn often. It’s OK if Penn defends as long as we make him work for it. I thought Sanchez failed not when he couldn’t take Penn down, but when he would sit on the fence latched on to B.J.’s leg. Yank on the legs. Try to get him to move.
On the off chance you do take him to the mat early on, throw a couple of shots to the body, let him back up, and start pushing again. Make him breathe that muggy Abu Dhabi air.
Both Maia and Edgar must be bold and aggressive, but that doesn’t mean they should fight with reckless abandon. For the same reason you wouldn’t go three and out bombing Hail Marys against the 2007 Patriots, our underdogs shouldn’t go out and throw spinning back fists and capoeira kicks. Fighting risky does not mean fighting stupid.