In the lone heavyweight battle on the UFC Fight Night 21 card, The Ultimate Fighter season ten winner and former IFL Heavyweight Champion Roy Nelson (14-4, 1-0 UFC) will meet the 6’11” Dutch submission specialist Stefan Struve (19-3, 3-1 UFC). Nelson is coming off an impressive ‘Knockout of the Night’ victory over The Ultimate Fighter season ten runner-up Brendan Schaub while Struve has rattled off three straight victories with wins over Denis Stojnic, Chase Gormley, and Paul Buentello.
This should be a pretty straightforward style match-up. Nelson is obviously the better puncher between the two fighters, and he’s proved that he has knockout power in his last fight against Schaub. Struve, on the other hand, has shown rather sloppy striking ability and poor defense, as evident in the Paul Buentello fight. Obviously, Buentello is a seasoned striker, but the sloppiness in Struve’s defense combined with his fading gas tank in that battle certainly doesn’t bode well against a deceptively better conditioned fighter like Roy Nelson.
Nelson won’t be making the mistake of over-exerting himself in the stand-up game like Buentello, so I don’t see Nelson growing tired from that portion of the fight. While Struve has a reach advantage against virtually anyone in the division, he’s pretty bad at taking advantage of that. Roy will strategically pick his shots and land on Struve.
Grappling-wise, it’s a tough call. Struve has shown some good technique on the floor as a result of his lengthy limbs and active guard, but Nelson is a much more seasoned grappler. His black belt level skills are no joke on the floor, and his added weight provides a stiff challenge for opponents to try to move when he gains top control.
With that said, I think Roy Nelson can win in either area of this fight. Struve has never shown impressive striking ability, and even though he managed to defeat Paul Buentello — it was a pretty ugly win to say the least. Nelson won’t be wildly throwing overhands, and he’ll likely be putting his jab in Struve’s face consistently to set up his power while staying relatively defensive.
I’ll take Roy Nelson in this fight via TKO as I think he’ll land some signficant blows either on the feet or on the ground. It wouldn’t surprise me if he dominates Struve in a grappling match-up either if it comes to that. Struve is just way too untechnical and inefficient to garner my interest in picking him in this fight. Roy will be eating Whoppers in no time after this one.