Some fans might say that the heavyweight clash between Brazilian striker Junior Dos Santos (10-1, 4-0 UFC) and fellow Brazilian fighter Gabriel Gonzaga (11-4, 7-3 UFC) should be considered the highlight of the evening’s four-fight main card. You’d likely be hard pressed to find any fans that completely disagree as Dos Santos has been linked to talk that he may gain a bout for contendership with a win on Sunday while some fans believe Gonzaga’s size and credentials could give large fighters like Shane Carwin, Frank Mir, and Brock Lesnar a run for their money at the top of the division. This bout could potentially vault the winner into the big three at the top of the division.
But that isn’t the only intrigue in this fight. First and foremost, it’s another test for Junior Dos Santos. He’s mostly walked through strikers who were unable to out duel him on the feet. Werdum never had the opportunity to put Dos Santos on the ground, and Stefan Struve was bombed with overhands within the first minute of their match-up. Grapplers haven’t had solid outings against Dos Santos, but Gonzaga could change that trend.
One of the most significant advantages for Gonzaga will be the added weight he possesses coupled with his Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials. Gonzaga could realistically come in 15-20 pounds heavier than Dos Santos, and he has proven that his size can be advantageous on the ground in allowing him to mount and pound out opponents. He’s also fairly slick in his transition ability, which could spell trouble if Gonzaga finds a dominant position.
On the feet, it’s a tough call, but Gonzaga has been the more exposed fighter. Fabricio Werdum was able to use an improved Muay Thai base to defeat Gonzaga at UFC 80, something Dos Santos could flash in this bout. He was also dropped by Shane Carwin in only 1:08 at UFC 96. Dos Santos has never been stopped on the feet.
Gonzaga’s gameplan will more than likely test the ground game of Junior Dos Santos. Santos has stated that he has a surprise in store for Gonzaga on the floor, a secret technique he’s been working on. We don’t really have any hint as to whether it’s a submission or reversal technique to stop Gonzaga from advancing on the ground, but the quote does hint at the fact that Santos expects Gonzaga to put him on his back.
With all of that said, I’m stuck. I think Gonzaga has the tools to be a real problem for a lot of fighters at the top, but Dos Santos is a huge obstacle as he’s a proficient striker with a credentialed and highly-trained ground game. Gonzaga’s best chance is to clinch, move to the fence, work for the takedown, and advance to a dominant position where he can pepper Dos Santos and wear him down. The question becomes whether he can actually do that or if Dos Santos has the chops on the floor to negate “Napao”.
My gut says Gonzaga, but the smart pick is probably Dos Santos here as he has the camp that trumps Gonzaga along with excellent power and striking ability. If he can maintain range and work the jab, he’ll eventually wear Gonzaga down. If Gonzaga gains a takedown, this could be a very interesting battle, and I wonder if Gonzaga’s size can be the game-changing aspect that leans this fight in Gonzaga’s favor. We’ll find out Sunday night.