In the UFC 110 main event, rising star and potential future contender Cain Velasquez (7-0. 5-0 UFC) will face his toughest test of his career as he’ll take on one of the all-time greats in PRIDE legend Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (32-5-1, 3-1 UFC) in a battle that could determine the next match-up for Brock Lesnar. Nogueira is coming into this match-up with an impressive victory over Randy Couture after being crushed by Frank Mir at UFC 92. Velasquez remains undefeated with his most recent wins coming against Cheick Kongo and Ben Rothwell.
Besides the obvious storyline that the winner will be propelled into talk of a title run, this bout also has the important storyline of the young up-and-comer finally be put into a situation in which he can breakthrough to the top tier of talent in the division. Velasquez has thus far proved to fans that he’s the real deal, but there have been some bumps in the road.
Specifically, many fans felt his performance against Cheick Kongo, a seasoned striker, was a bit of a reality check to the two-time NCAA Division I All-American wrestler. For this fight, his training camp has stated that we’ll see a different striker in Velasquez than we’ve seen in the past, but we’ve heard those bold statements from every fighter on the planet in the lead-up to big fights.
Nogueira’s camp has been claiming that this will be the very best Nogueira we’ve seen since his days in PRIDE, and we’ve also seen a priority to shore up Nogueira’s takedown defense and ground game in his training sessions. Nogueira is known for his boxing pedigree, and it seems that both himself and his brother have been benefiting recently from better training in their stand-up games.
Nogueira’s chin has also been a hot topic among some fans who felt Mir exposed the aging fighter, but the Couture fight proved that Nogueira’s chin still seems to be somewhat durable as he did tag Nogueira with a mean left that didn’t look to even daze the former PRIDE champion. Velasquez isn’t known for his power, so that could make this an advantageous battle for Nogueira on the feet.
Where will this fight take place? It’s an interesting question. Velasquez’s camp seems to be pushing the theory that Velasquez will stand and show off an improved striking regiment while Nogueira’s camp will want to stop Velasquez’s wrestling and resort to punching him out. This makes me believe we’ll see a striking battle between these two heavyweights, but will Velasquez resort to his wrestling?
It’s a tough call. While Velasquez has that high level wrestling pedigree, Nogueira is considered a legend for the way in which he creates mistakes, dummies transitions, and capitalizes on those mistakes. Velasquez isn’t going to be an easy guy to submit, but Couture is considered to be one of the elite in terms of his defense from the top — and even he succumbed to some of the reversal techniques of Nogueira.
Nogueira will have a little bit of length on Velasquez as well, which doesn’t bode well in either area of the fight. If he happens to reverse Cain on the floor, Cain will have to deal with Nogueira’s frame to escape.
In my mind, I’ve always had Nogueira winning this fight. He’s not only historically one of the toughest guys to beat, but he’s one of the most well-rounded heavyweights in the sport. His striking was fairly deficient against Mir, but we might be able to place some of the problems in the fact that he was horribly unprepared due to various injuries. Sure, everyone fights with injuries… but not everyone battles staph and a blown knee and still says “I’ll fight”.
The new and improved Nogueira showed up against Couture, and I imagine he’ll show up against Cain Velasquez as well. In any area of this fight, I think Nogueira outclasses a young Cain Velasquez. I’ll take the legend Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira via decision.