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UFC 110 Business Forecast: Expect a Low PPV Buyrate and a Strong Live Showing

We are just a few days away from UFC 110, a card that has a number of appealing fights but simultaneously lacks anything with serious drawing power.  The event also comes just two weeks after UFC 109, leaving the UFC with precious little time to promote the event in the United States, especially considering the fact that almost everyone in the organization is already in Australia or on their way there.

The main event is a very intriguing fight.  Cain Velasquez has stormed through everyone he’s fought, but Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira represents a serious step up in competition from the likes of Cheick Kongo and Ben Rothwell.  Unfortunately, the intriguing stylistic aspects of this match probably will not be converted to PPV buys.  Velasquez is a relative unknown to UFC fans, and Nogueira, while known, has never drawn a big number in the United States.  

The real “draw” of the show is the co-main event between Wanderlei Silva and Michael Bisping.  Unfortunately for the UFC, Bisping has been very humble in his approach to this fight, leaving them without much of a hook to sell this fight on.  Given the shallow nature of the UFC middleweight division, the winner of this fight will probably only be a fight or two away from a title shot.

The rest of the card is packed with interesting fights that don’t mean a lot to casual fans.  Internally, people at the UFC are excited to get this card out of the way and get onto a number of big cards with title matches.  It’s usually hard to predict a buyrate until the day before a show, and since I like to stay safe, I’m going to predict the number falls between 275,000 and 325,000 buys.  

Everyone knows Australia sold out relatively quickly, so from a live perspective the event will be a success.  They also don’t have any big PPV contracts to pay out on this card, so it will be very profitable even on the lower end of the range predicted above.  Nobody is expecting a big number for this card, the real stories coming out of it will be the future opponents of Brock Lesnar and Anderson Silva.