In the UFC 109 main event, current UFC Hall of Famers Randy “The Natural” Couture (17-10, 14-7 UFC) and Mark “The Hammer” Coleman (16-9, 7-4 UFC) will face off in what Dana White has called a possible contender showdown for the light heavyweight title. Most fans are scoffing at the selling points that a match-up between a 46-year-old Couture and a 45-year-old Coleman could see the winner challenge for the title. While the idea of that actually happening seems laughable, the consistent building of Couture as a “tough fight for anyone” over the years due to his style could give the UFC the confidence to try to sell that fight if Couture is victorious. Whether we buy that is an entirely different debate.
Despite the potential marketing spin on the outcome, this will be a battle between two veterans with very similar styles that have been molded by wrestling. The major difference is that Coleman is more reliant on the concepts of freestyle wrestling while Couture has implemented a Greco-Roman style of wrestling into his MMA skill-set.
Coleman is considered the pioneer of “ground and pound” fighting while Couture is highly regarded for being an ageless wonder in the landscape of a much younger field of challengers. He managed to come out of retirement to defeat Tim Sylvia to become the UFC heavyweight champion at age 43, demolished challenger Gabriel Gonzaga five months later, and gave both Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira battles in ’08 and ’09.
Coleman doesn’t get the same attention as Couture mostly due to the fact that his rematch with Mauricio “Shogun” Rua showed a lacking conditioning regiment in his game, and many hardcore fans felt that Coleman was “enhanced” during his stint in Japan. Regardless of that opinion, this should be the fight in which Coleman has an opportunity to silence his critics.
Coleman’s victory over Stephan Bonnar at UFC 100 was also a surprise, and the fight itself showed the determination that the aging fighter still has in his heart. The question becomes whether he can be as successful as Couture has been at his increased age.
Stylistically, Couture has the edge in this fight. While his clinch tactics will be a bit tough for him to capitalize on in the first round, Couture’s conditioning should allow him to wear down Coleman as the fight progresses. He’s made a legacy for himself over the past few years as being one of the most durable fighters in the sport, and Coleman’s weak conditioning in his past couple of fights is something he’ll likely focus on.
It’s tough to formulate Coleman’s keys to success. On one hand, an early blitz of energy to put Couture on his back could reap rewards of damaging Couture early, but the prospect of Couture stuffing those attacks will only wear down Coleman quicker. Coleman also has some very deficient striking capabilities while Couture likely has a significant edge in that arena. I don’t see a gameplan of Coleman trying to box with Couture as a smart way to win.
In the end, I have to go with the proven fighter. For his age, Couture has managed to surprise nearly every fan on the planet, and Coleman’s performances in the Octagon in his recent stint haven’t inspired confidence in giving him the nod here. Couture should wear Coleman down over three rounds and win via unanimous decision.