Serving as one of the higher profile bouts of the evening, the middleweight showdown between Team Jackson-trained former King of Pancrase champion Nate “The Great” Marquardt (29-8-2, 8-2 UFC) and two-time NCAA D-I and Olympic alternate wrestler Chael Sonnen (23-10-1,3-3 UFC) should provide some interest to fans as it has been confirmed that it will determine the next contender to UFC middleweight crown. Both Sonnen and Marquardt are entering this contest following victories with Marquardt dispatching of Demian Maia in a cool 0:21 seconds at UFC 102 and Sonnen out wrestling Yushin Okami over three rounds at UFC 104.
Dan Henderson was the high profile name being thrown around a few months back as a challenger to the title at middleweight, but the UFC insisted on a showdown with Nate Marquardt to provide a clear cut contender. Surprisingly, Henderson jumped ship for the network television waters of Strikeforce. This left the UFC without anyone to truly pit Marquardt against until Sonnen beat down Yushin Okami at UFC 104.
Unfortunately for the UFC’s marketing department, I’m not entirely sold on this bout being competitive. The only significant challenge I see in this fight is if Marquardt has problems stopping Sonnen from clinching with him or taking him down. If Sonnen actually has the strength to takedown a behemoth middleweight like Nate Marquardt, there is hope that he can pull off the upset and get his chance to trash talk Anderson Silva into a tizzy.
I don’t see that happening. Both men are listed at 6’1″, 185 lbs. with a 74″ reach, but Marquardt is the visibly bulkier athlete between the two fighters. Furthermore, Marquardt’s striking has improved significantly, and his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt should instill confidence in his ground game. He also has some solid wrestling partners at Team Jackson to train with, and his conditioning is excellent for such a large 185’er. He’s truly one of the most well-rounded fighters in the sport.
Marquardt’s conditioning and strength combined with his better striking and solid ground tactics should be enough of a well-rounded game to give him the overall advantage in this fight. Sonnen won’t provide a stiff test when it comes to landing leather, and his submission defense has been an area that has always been under constant scrutiny. Nate isn’t known for appendage submissions from his guard, so I wouldn’t expect an arm-snapping armbar — but his defensive grappling could stifle Sonnen’s activity from the top.
Sonnen’s best chance is to make this a high-paced wrestling match in which he can wear out Marquardt against the fence. He worked a perfect gameplan of controlling a very strong Yushin Okami by pure determination and persistence. Okami was able to get to his feet after every Sonnen takedown in the first round of their fight, but Sonnen continued to gain takedown after takedown, frustrating Okami.
The second round ended quite differently with Okami looking for Sonnen’s takedowns, but eating blows from Sonnen rather than stuffing takedowns. It was a gameplan of classic misdirection from Sonnen, but I think he’ll find it much harder to work such a gameplan when he’s dealing with Marquardt.
Marquardt has too many ways to win for me to go against him in this contest. I’ll take Nate Marquardt via TKO.