In the second middleweight match-up taking place on the UFC 109 main card, Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Demian Maia (11-1, 5-1 UFC) makes his return to the Octagon following his twenty-one second knockout loss to Nate Marquardt against the always tough and durable Dan Miller (11-2, 3-1 UFC). Miller enters this contest following a brutal beatdown at the hands of Chael Sonnen at UFC 98 via unanimous decision. Both men will be looking to rebound in a big way in order to keep their names in the mix at the top of the 185 pound weight division.
For most fans looking at this match-up, the winner is clear. Demian Maia’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizardry that he’s displayed against opponents such as Chael Sonnen, Nate Quarry, Jason MacDonald, Ed Herman, and Ryan Jensen normally gives fans a one-sided feeling about any opponent with the exception of the top fighters in the division. Sonnen might have slipped his name into that tier of fighters if he had not had a history of deficient submission defense, but Miller’s submission defense is definitely a notch higher.
Submission defense is a huge question in this fight, but the other question that many fans will ask themselves is whether Miller can defeat an opponent who easily submitted Sonnen, Miller’s most recent opponent who crushed him for fifteen straight minutes on his way to an unanimous decision win. While some fans would throw down the MMAth formulas, it’s somewhat a different style match-up.
Miller won’t be having to contend with a better wrestler credential-wise, but Maia’s fluid transitions to submissions and underrated wrestling ability won’t be an easy undertaking for Miller. Miller has stated in a recent interview that he intends to keep Maia away from him by using his wrestling to stuff any takedowns and make the bout a stand-up battle. Obviously, this is a gameplan that allows Miller to try to make Maia fight his own fight, but Maia has proven in the past that pulling guard can completely change how wrestling is used by his opponents.
Maia’s stand-up will be the most interesting part of his game to watch on Saturday. We don’t know how much face time his newer skills will get during the fight, but from all indications — Maia will be looking for the submission as quickly as he can.
The only truly interesting note is that Miller recently gained his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt from Renzo Gracie black belt Jamie Cruz over the layoff. Will it be enough to outwit Maia? It’s doubtful as Maia is considered to be light years ahead of the competition when it comes to BJJ for MMA.
Miller’s only chance is to somehow keep Maia away while peppering him with shots. If he can hurt Maia early, we may see a drawn out striking war in which we’ll get a glimpse at Maia’s hard work from the gym. In my mind however, I think we’ll see a standard Maia outing in which he brilliantly baits his opponent into some bad situations and wins via submission.