After a respectable showing from the WEC last night at WEC 46 in Sacramento, California, we’ll now turn our attention to the larger promotion under the Zuffa umbrella in the UFC. UFC Fight Night 20 takes place on Monday night from the Patriot Center in Fairfax, Virginia, and it will air LIVE on Spike TV at 9:00 PM EST. The main event will feature a lightweight showdown between The Ultimate Fighter Season 5 champion Nate Diaz (11-4, 6-2 UFC) and The Ultimate Fighter Season 5 contestant Gray Maynard (8-0-0 1 NC, 6-0-0 1 NC UFC) in a rematch of their semi-finals match-up during the show’s taping.
As you may have concluded, the rematch between the two cast members has added consequences and rewards for each fighter. Diaz is currently climbing his way back into relevancy after suffering two losses consecutively. He dropped an unanimous decision loss to Joe Stevenson at The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale, and a very close split decision loss to Clay Guida at UFC 94. Both fights claimed Fight of the Night honors, and Diaz has actually gained bonuses in his last five fights.
Maynard has much more to gain than Diaz with a win however. After defeating Roger Huerta at UFN 19, Jim Miller at UFC 96, and Frankie Edgar at UFN 13, most writers and analysts have Maynard as a shoe-in to become the next legitimate challenge to B.J. Penn‘s title. Unfortunately for Maynard, his style doesn’t seem to be a selling point that the UFC brass believes is enticing to the casual fan.
The rematch does give Maynard the opportunity to avenge a past loss while also giving him a chance to impress a national audience with a great finish. It does, however, give Diaz the opportunity to severely derail Maynard’s progress and put himself in the mix at the top, albeit he’ll need some solid wins to get a shot at Penn.
Stylistically, this should be a mirror image of their last bout in terms of how each guy can win. Obviously, both fighters have improved substantially in the amount of time that has passed since their last encounter, and that’s really what makes this a somewhat intriguing match-up.
Maynard will have a dominating top control game in which to punish Diaz, but he’s also improved dramatically in his striking game. He tends to move in and out and box opponents while also using his wrestling ability to stuff takedowns and continue battering opponents who like to stand. Diaz is perfectly willing to stand and bang with anyone, and his reach should be a significant difference than that of Maynard’s past opponents.
Diaz should have the edge striking as his reach and boxing should put him in a better position to damage Maynard. Diaz’s takedown defense isn’t rock solid, and he has problems working his Brazilian jiu-jitsu techniques off his back against positionally dominant wrestlers. Maynard could out grapple Diaz much like Stevenson was able to do at The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale, but that could be a dangerous game as Diaz has a high, active guard with lengthy limbs to sink in triangle chokes or reverse positions.
The safe bet is to go with Gray Maynard in this bout. He should be able to implement a positional strategy to out work Diaz on the floor and avoid submissions on his way to a decision victory. While it’s fairly boring, it is probably the easiest way to secure a victory. If Diaz has improved enough since his loss to Stevenson to stop those basic wrestling moves and work submissions, he should win. He has the boxing and ground game to be dangerous in both areas of the fight. I’ll take Maynard, but Diaz is a solid pick here.
This will be the only preview for UFN 20. For those of you who emailed me wondering where I had gone and when I was going to analyze events and betting lines, I was out due to a passing in the family. Thanks for your support and hopefully I was able to get back to you all in a timely fashion.