A week ago Josh Gross wrote that Frankie Edgar would likely get the next shot at BJ Penn, even if Gray Maynard defeats Nate Diaz. I am a fan of Frankie Edgar, but there’s no way to justify moving him ahead of Gray Maynard if Gray avenges his loss to Nate Diaz tonight. The move is indefensible from both a sports perspective and a business perspective.
When Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar fought the first time, the result was decisive. Yes, the fight went to decision, but it was an unquestionable 30-27. Edgar couldn’t hang with Maynard’s wrestling and was even outpointed on the feet. It was a bad night for Edgar; he looked oddly sluggish and unlike himself. It may have just been an “off night.” But that’s no excuse for moving him ahead of a man who beat him and is also undefeated in the UFC.
From a business perspective, I see no advantage to giving Frankie Edgar a title shot first. It would be one thing if BJ’s next defense was in New Jersey, Frankie Edgar’s home state. But all indications suggest that Penn’s next defense will be at UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi, where I’d venture to say that Frankie Edgar’s name isn’t going to do a whole lot more for the draw than Gray Maynard. To the U.S. market, a Penn-Maynard fight is more marketable. It would be the first fight between a TUF coach and one of his students (to my knowledge), and we all know how effective the UFC marketing machine is at selling stories arising out of the reality show. Further, BJ Penn is the guy who really brought Gray Maynard into MMA, adding another interesting layer of story to tell.
I appreciate the “business first” approach to matchmaking, but I still believe that unless there is some gigantic business opportunity made available by jumping a guy to the front of the line, pure sports considerations should be the determining factors in deciding who the number one contender is. Here, Maynard makes sense from both business and pure sports perspectives. He should get the shot.
The impression I get is that the UFC is split internally over who will get the next shot. If Gray stops Nate Diaz in exciting fashion, I’d be shocked if Edgar got the shot. But if he gets a 29-28 decision through wrestling, the Frankie Edgar supporters may win the day.
Since I expect Maynard to win tonight, here is what I think should happen. Gray should get his title shot in April while Frankie Edgar fights Kenny Florian in New Jersey. Takanori Gomi could fight Diego Sanchez. Coming out of those 3 fights I think you’d have some interesting combinations at 155 going forward.