In the UFC 108 main event, former UFC light heavyweight champion “Sugar” Rashad Evans (13-1-1, 8-1-1 UFC) will look to get back on track for a run at contention as he battles American Top Team-product Thiago Silva (14-1, 5-1 UFC). The winner will more than likely keep his name in the discussion as to who will potentially sneak into a rematch with Lyoto Machida or a newly-crowned champion in Mauricio “Shogun” Rua following their rematch on May 1st, 2010 in Montreal, Canada.
Both Evans and Silva suffered their first career losses in 2009 to the current champion Lyoto Machida. Machida’s win over Silva came at UFC 94 as he battled his way to the top of the division, and his destruction of Rashad Evans at UFC 98 secured him the title. Evans hasn’t fought since due to his stint as a coach on The Ultimate Fighter, but Silva was able to impressively blitz Keith Jardine in 1:35 of the first round at UFC 102.
Stylistically, this should be a pretty solid match-up. Evans is mostly known for his blanketing wrestling ability that allowed him to control opponents in the earlier days of his career. He’s never been an overwhelming striker, but he has managed to out point many of his challengers in the past. His footwork is fairly sloppy, but he’s created some substantial power and speed in his hands over the course of the last couple of years.
Silva fills the role of a Brazilian power striker perfectly. He has a strong Muay Thai base and stance, works an aggressive gameplan, and can knockout opponents in devastating fashion. He looks to be molding himself into quite the fighter at 205 pounds as he looked visibly bulked up against Keith Jardine, and his conditioning is improving as well.
Striking should be the primary concern for both fighters in this showdown. More than likely, Silva will be the aggressor as he’ll try to work the left jab, and then swiftly counter with either hand as Evans looks to counter himself. Evans won’t be the easiest man to stalk however. He’ll likely dance and use his footwork to dodge attacks while trying to counter.
There is a lot of talk regarding Evans’ footwork, but against a stalking fighter like Thiago Silva — it might actually come at an advantage to him to constantly move and keep Silva off balance. It could be a surefire way to move this fight to the ground and blanket Silva in wrestling techniques.
There is also another perception that Evans’ striking is fairly loopy and won’t be as effective as Silva’s straighter punching. While this is true in some ways, Evans does mix in the straight one-two combination of jabs with overhands that try to slip his opponent’s own straight jab. He was a bit effective in this technique against Liddell, but in the furious exchanges that he had with Liddell — Speed was the ultimate advantage for Evans.
While Liddell is far past his prime, his bout with Evans does show us some ways in which Silva can win. Evans played the prey for most of the fight, moving around the cage while Liddell stalked. I see Silva being the predator in this match-up just as Chuck. One of the major flaws for Chuck, something he’s always been weak at remembering to do in past fights, was not throwing the kicks when he had Rashad on the defensive against the fence.
Silva will need to capitalize on Evans nesting himself deep against the fence in hopes to counter Silva’s aggressiveness. He could chop down Evans with heavy kicks, or use the clinch to implement knee strikes to soften him up. The advantage for Evans in those positions would be a transition to the ground, somewhere we haven’t see Silva actually work defensively at in a long time.
My concern with Thiago Silva stems from some of his past fights. He nearly caved to Antonio Mendes and Tomasz Drwal, but came out on top. He’s susceptible to leaving himself open to counters, and Evans should have wrestling to fall back on. Silva is still very capable of putting power on Evans though. The intriguing aspect of his game that I’d like to see is how he can nullify Evans on his back… if he can at all. Will it get that far? I don’t know, but I’ll take Rashad Evans via TKO in this showdown.