The lone championship bout on the Strikeforce: Evolution fight card will be an unification bout between the current Strikeforce Lightweight champion Josh “The Punk” Thomson (16-2) and Strikeforce Interim Lightweight champion Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez (16-2). The bout is a rematch of their title bout back in June of 2008 in which Thomson took a five-round decision over Melendez. He won every single round on the judges’ cards, defeating Melendez with a barrage of knees, front kicks, leg kicks, and phenomenal footwork to attain the title.
Thomson’s last fight was on September 9th, 2008 in which he defeated Ashe Bowman via TKO in the first round at the Strikeforce at the Mansion II event. He hasn’t fought since due to an ankle breakage he sustained on April 1, 2009 in preparation for a rematch with Gilbert Melendez for the title. The breakage caused Strikeforce to implement the Interim title belt later in the year due to Thomson dropping out of another scheduled rematch with Melendez on August 15th, 2009. Unfortunately, Thomson wasn’t cleared to fight due to problems resulting from the breakage.
The interesting thoughts on this fight revolve around their previous encounter back in 2008. Thomson was able to show off a visibly improved stand-up game that included a variety of kicks that left Melendez battered after nearly every round of action. Melendez was also unable to gain a takedown against Thomson for most of the fight with exception of a reversal in the first round. Thomson, on the other hand, nearly tapped Melendez after gaining a takedown in the fourth round of action. From all indications, Thomson completely dominated Melendez for the entire fight.
What has changed? The most significant difference is Thomson’s downtime as he hasn’t fought since September of 2008. Ring rust could be something that could come heavily into play in this fight. The time away from training his stand-up game could also be another area in which he’s deficient due to the injury, and it was significant in his previous win over Melendez.
Watch the first Josh Thomson vs. Gilbert Melendez bout via Hulu.com
The advantages for Melendez are that he knows what to expect from Thomson. Thomson showed great stand-up and takedown defense, and it was evident in the brief exchanges on the ground that Thomson had the advantage. Can Melendez put together a different gameplan or training regiment to exploit Thomson’s weaknesses or strengthen his own game to push Thomson to the limit of his abilities?
Looking at this fight, I’m still not convinced that Melendez will ever have the tools to defeat Thomson. He’s a decent puncher, but he doesn’t produce brutal knockout power that will incapacitate Thomson. His wrestling ability is solid, but he had huge problems trying to gain takedowns against Thomson in their previous fight, even to the point in which the positions were reversed and Thomson gained the upper hand. He tends to wade in close range to pummel opponents, and Thomson used his kicks as the perfect defense to keep Melendez at range. He’ll likely need to do the same in this fight.
I’m going with Thomson via decision in a fight that should play out similarly to their first match-up. The only mystery is whether Melendez has improved his striking enough to stop Thomson’s array of kicks from keeping him off-balance. If he can do that, he has a good chance of getting close and hurting Thomson. He’ll need to become much more explosive in the takedown game and smother Thomson from top control if it hits the floor. Has Melendez improved enough to do that? I don’t think he has, but he can prove me wrong on Saturday night.