While UFC 107 features some solid match-ups in the heavyweight and welterweight divisions, the event is truly a showcase of the UFC’s lightweight talent. In the first main card lightweight battle of the evening, Kenny Florian (11-4, 9-3 UFC) will look to rebound from his UFC 101 loss to B.J. Penn against the well-conditioned whirling dervish of hair that is Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (25-10, 5-4 UFC). Guida is coming off a split decision loss to Diego Sanchez at The Ultimate Fighter: U.S. vs. U.K. Finale.
I won’t beat around the bush in the breakdown of this fight. It doesn’t look like a bout that Guida can win without some sort of improvement in his striking ability, and I’ve grown rather tired of the hearing the same old line from Clay Guida that his striking continues to improve. We first heard about this improvement when Guida fought Marcus Aurelio at UFC 74, but we didn’t see it in that fight, nor have we seen any sort of significant improvement in any fight leading up to his last bout with Diego Sanchez.
Florian, on the other hand, improved substantially from one fight to the next over the course of his six-fight win streak following his loss to Sean Sherk at UFC 64. Not only has he become a solid Muay Thai boxer on his feet, but his ground game has evolved into a dangerous weapon in his arsenal. He is definitely one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division, and Guida will have a very tough time trying to exploit any weaknesses he can find.
One weakness that Guida is always good at exposing is the conditioning of his opponents. Most fans would say that Guida is a below average to average striker with good wrestling ability, but nearly every fan who has watched a Clay Guida fight would say his conditioning and ability to create a torrid pace is his greatest attribute. In fact, his win over Mac Danzig was a textbook example of how quickly Guida works and wears out his opponents, and even in his losing efforts — he has pushed some of the best fighters in the division to the brink of losing.
This is a fight that resembles many of Guida’s past wars. His opponent is better in nearly every facet of the sport, but the x-factor comes down to the tenacious pace that Guida can set from the beginning. In the past, he hasn’t been able to capitalize as Huerta came back from the brink of unconsciousness to win and both Sanchez and Tyson Griffin edged him out. Can he capitalize and defeat Kenny Florian?
While I’m a huge fan of Clay Guida, I can’t rationally pick him in this fight. I’ve been very disappointed in his improvement in his striking, almost to the point where I’ve written him off. The fact of the matter is that he needs to add some sort of weapon to his pace, and the best weapon would obviously be a technical striking game that’s accurate and powerful. He lacks that right now, so unless he shows up with a dynamic boxing game that will actually land on Florian’s chin — he’s probably going to be peppered in this fight.
The only real chance that Guida has is by smothering Florian on the floor, and I think Florian has the Brazilian jiu-jitsu know-how to stop Guida in his tracks. Florian has never shown any real holes in his conditioning, so Guida will need to hit the cage running in order to press Florian. If he can do that, he might have a shot at the upset. In the end however, I have to go with Kenny Florian via decision.