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UFC 106 Analysis: Tito Ortiz Is Still the Same Guy After All (and Other Assorted Thoughts)

Tito Ortiz is still good enough to appear competitive.  But he was outclassed tonight.  He lost every round on my card, though the second was admittedly close.  He was out of gas in the third round, waited way too long to shoot, and when he did couldn’t get the takedown.  

Ortiz made people believe that if he just got rid of his injuries he’d be back to dominant form.  It was always nonsense; his game is too predictable, he has a double and some nice inside elbows, but that’s about it.  He opened up Forrest with one, which isn’t much of an accomplishment given Forrest’s scar tissue.  

It’s unclear where to go next with Ortiz.  He could fight the Couture/Coleman winner, though I don’t think he could beat Couture now anymore than he could when they first fought.  Another option is to put him on The Ultimate Fighter opposite Chuck Liddell.  Both guys are obviously planning to fight again, it would do big ratings, and neither one is relevant at 205 at this point.

Forrest showed no signs of being mentally broken tonight.  Many assumed his unwillingness to talk about the Anderson fight and his odd behavior suggested he had mental issues.  What people didn’t take into account was the possibility that he knew no words could explain what happened, and that the only thing he could really do was train hard and jump back on the wagon.

Josh Koscheck got a nice win by using his wrestling.  It says something about Georges St. Pierre that Koscheck was able to take down a JUCO national champion so easily.  There’s no reason to do Hardy-Koscheck; this is already a division with no contenders, why eliminate one?  I’d like to see Koscheck-Alves 2.  If Koscheck can beat Alves, then he’s really earned himself a shot.

The final big story of the night was Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.  He made a big statement with his win tonight, icing a guy whose chin looked like iron before he met his demise this evening.  It’s always risky to take shots because you believe in your chin, because that strategy eventually hits a brick wall for everyone.  Tonight it did for Cane.  Nogueira may only be a win away from title contention, and he’s stated he is willing to fight Lyoto Machida.  Who’s next for him?  Fights with Forrest Griffin, Rich Franklin, and Brandon Vera are all appealing options.

I think this show may have marked the end of Tito Ortiz’s drawing power.  I’m a strong believer in the theory that the impact of losses on drawing ability is overstated, but he was exposed in a big way tonight, and his tantrum after the fight was just embarrassing.  Though I’ll concede people may hate him enough after that fight that they’ll pay to see him get beat up.