Doing pre-event “film study” of Randy Couture’s recent fights I started to notice an ugly trend. Randy has started to throw punches bent over at the waist, especially his right uppercut. Both Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira were able to exploit this punch with straight right hands.
In addition to being bent at the waist during both of these fights Randy was looking to throw the punch from what I feel is a bit too far outside. This allows more room and time for the right counter.
Let’s take a look at the exchanges.
In the Lesnar fight it’s not so much a Randy initiated moment as it is an attempted counter. Lesnar paws with the left, Randy bends down to avoid and a straight right is coming behind that clips Couture just as he starts to throw the uppercut. While it’s easy to not fault Randy because the bend starts off as an evasive maneuver he has to know that he is too far back to start to wind up a right uppercut. Watch the moment in question:
In addition to the spacing, if he is going to duck Randy has to cover up with the left hand. I know someone will point out that this is MMA and not boxing but taking a shot to the temple or jaw is a good way to get your lights shut out and dropping the left hand leaves the most vulnerable areas wide open. Now, watch starting at 1:22 of this video:
In the video the boxer in white ducks the jab, keeps his left hand up and because he is in tight he lets the uppercut go. When Randy starts to throw his uppercut against Lesnar he is throwing it from a distance where Brock is able to get full extension on a right hand. We always talk about position before submission, but the same applies in striking. Regardless of if it is boxing, kickboxing or MMA there are certain strikes that you can not throw from certain positions.
Moving on to the Nogueira fight. It was more than once that Randy looked to throw the right uppercut and left himself open to right hand counters. In this fight the bend wasn’t as pronounced and the spacing was better but he was still bending more with his waist than legs and leaving his left hand down. Here’s the action, watch the left hand:
Does the single hole in his striking this post focuses on mean that I don’t think Randy can beat Brandon Vera on Saturday? No, not at all. What it does mean is that I think it would be a clear mistake for him to attempt to strike with Brandon. Lesnar and Nogueira both lack the dynamic striking abilities of Vera. One has to assume that Brandon’s camp has dissected film on Randy and knows to wait on that punch the way Nogueira did.
Couture’s ability to win this fight hinges on his wrestling and trying to break Vera’s will. We’ve seen Vera get frustrated and fold when he gets bullied before, and that is where Randy can win. One thing seems clear to me though, in a striking battle Randy stands very little chance.