The UFC appears to be on the verge of a television deal that would add a number of shows to their calendar. Dana White has indicated that they will soon be bringing over top 135 and 145 pound talent to the UFC to fill in slots on those shows, and all of the UFC signings of late also appear to be motivated by the need to fill up 2-3 shows per month. As a fan I’m thrilled by all this news of Strikeforce and the UFC doing more shows. Between the two fight fans will get a major show of some kind almost every week, if not more.
The danger for the UFC is the need to deliver big main events for network television on a regular basis. Dana strongly suggested that BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez could headline a network event in November. That sounds great, but at the same time, one wonders if they even have a title match for the New Year’s show if they go that route. It’s one thing to add shows on Spike that don’t need big fight main events, it’s another to have to give away big fights to please the network television ratings gods.
Nobody really knows how the UFC will do on network television. Their best number ever on cable was a 3.1 in 2007 for Rampage Jackson vs. Dan Henderson. Where is the ceiling? I suspect a fight like BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez will do about a 4.0 on a network, which is more than good enough to survive, but probably not enough to justify anywhere near what the UFC will want come renewal time. Realistically speaking, these networks are going to want Brock Lesnar fights. If ratings slide, the UFC will probably have no choice but to give away big fights to hit the right numbers, and at that point you start giving away the keys to the castle.
At first, the benefits of a network deal are huge. Millions of people will see the fights and become interested in paying to see their favorites fight on PPV. It will grow the PPV base. But over time there are diminishing returns; they won’t be getting any brand new fans on network shows by the third time they run one, and by the fifth or sixth network show they may even incentivize fans that used to pay for shows to just watch the great ones they get on free TV.
The ideal network deal for the UFC will last only a few years and commit them to a small number of major shows. The key is to give the public at large a taste of what a big UFC event feels like, whet their appetite, and then pull back and make them start paying to get that feeling again.