When we did our staff picks for UFC 97 I got a little flack from colleagues and readers for talking about athletic decline in fighters regarding the Liddell/Shogun Rua fight. I was extremely confident by looking at Chuck’s recent performances that he was in the final stages of his career. I’ve spoken a little bit more about the theory of athletic decline when talking about the upcoming Randy Couture/Minotauro Nogueira fight at UFC 102 and I’m starting to realize that it is a concept that may not fully be understood in the MMA community.
I’ve been following combat sports since I was a very young boxing fan and I’ve seen many a fighter hit the point in their career where they are unable to handle all but those fighters who reside comfortably below them in their sport’s hierarchy. With Liddell I saw his hand speed change, his footwork looked sluggish…etc. It isn’t that he got knocked out against Rashad and Rampage, it was that he didn’t seem able to fight with his normal style and put himself back into a solid defensive position as he executed his gameplan.
Trying to determine where a fighter is at when looking at the end of their career can be tricky. It’s a lot like looking at an NFL wide receiver. You’re not necessarily looking to see if he is still able to catch passes, you’re looking at the small things like explosiveness off the snap and the ability to create separation from a defender within the first three yards. With fighters it’s harder than with “major sports athletes” as we get to see them in a competitive environment far less often. The other part of the equation is the style that they use and how hard it is for them to succeed in that style once skill levels begin to erode.
Looking at a guy like Randy Couture I can see that, yes, athletically he isn’t quite where he was when he emerged as a born again superstar in defeating Liddell and Tito Ortiz. But I also see a guy who was able to wrestle with Brock Lesnar somewhat successfully and looked very solid against Gabriel Gonzaga and Tim Sylvia. Randy benefits from a style where if he loses some footwork it should only delay his ability to get inside and work his clinch game. The grinding, dirty boxing style of Randy can survive longer than a wild, wide swinging style of a guy like Chuck or Wanderlei Silva because it relies on technique over natural gifts (punching speed..etc) that erode with time. As long as Randy is doing whatever he is doing to remain strong enough to work the inside game he will probably remain effective and I see no proof that he has hit a point in athletic decline to where he can’t work HIS style. Could Randy be successful fighting like Machida? Probably not. But Randy Couture can still be successful fighting like Randy Couture.
Nogueira on the other hand looks like a guy who is athletically shot. Since coming to the UFC he has looked like a guy who wants to use boxing techniques but his footwork is shoddy, his hands look slow and inaccurate and he doesn’t seem to have enough explosiveness left to get the fight to the floor reliably. When you add in that he has fought a style that includes taking a lot of damage en route to wins, it isn’t a formula for long-term success. Fighters who take a lot of punishment over their careers tend to fade earlier. I do believe that something was wrong with Nogueira when he fought Mir, but I don’t think that he is a ton better than he looked in that fight at this stage in his career.
Trying to predict what is going to happen in this fight depends entirely on your ability to interpret what you’ve seen from the fighters in their last few times in the cage. Me personally, I feel very comfortable looking at these two legends and saying that Randy Couture is going to be much more effective in working his game. No matter the outcome this is a conversation that will have to be revisited after we get more data on Saturday night.