Mike Chiappetta made a great point on MMA Nation today that I’ve been talking about with others in private for a few days. For all the general exasperation over talks between Fedor and the UFC falling apart, it’s worth considering the fact that Fedor only became a free agent a little over a week ago.
Fedor is the most sought-after free agent in MMA history. Not only does every promotion want him, money men who aren’t in the sport (stupidly) think they can use him to create a successful MMA promotion. Thus far, the people at M-1 have been able to get everything they want from promotions like Bodog and Affliction without giving anything up in return. They aren’t about to bend on their demands until they are sure they can’t get someone else to satisfy them again.
The UFC could ignore Fedor and never be worse off for it. They are extraordinarily successful without him, and there are a number of risks associated with signing him. Will he bomb as a draw without Lesnar or Couture opposite him? Will his management hold out for more money mid-contract given their leverage? Will he plow through the division and leave with their title? These are all big risks that Dana is willing to ignore because he wants Fedor so badly. Unfortunately for the UFC, they’ve already shown their cards to M-1, and now M-1 will take its time before plotting its next move.
I think it’s premature to say the talks are dead. It’s been a week. M-1 will now try to play Strikeforce and the UFC against each other while they also look to other options. The UFC violated several cardinal rules of negotiating by storming in with an amazing offer and numerous concessions, and they did it because they thought they’d be able to avoid a long negotiating process. Now they have to take a step back and figure out where to go from here, and how to reorient their negotiation strategy to address the fairly transparent goals of M-1 Global.