If one thing has been made clear by the last few weeks it is that the heavyweight division is incredibly unstable. By the time Fall begins to set in we’re going to be looking at a divisional picture that is unbelievably different from May.
Let’s look at the heavyweight rankings as posted on May 28 and see if we can’t try to make some sense out of where the division will be on September 1.
#1 Fedor Emelianenko will face #2 Josh Barnett in August. I don’t see this fight going well for Josh, but one never knows in this sport. Still, at the beginning of September the winner of this fight is clearly #1 in the division. If Fedor somehow doesn’t pick up the win he probably only drops to #2, if Josh gets the loss he’ll likely drop to somewhere in the #5 range.
We’re roughly a month away from #3 Frank Mir taking on #6 Brock Lesnar at UFC 100. The winner will probably be ranked second or third in the division depending on the result of the Fedor fight. The reason Brock would make the jump to possibly as high as #2 with a win? Well, aside from beating the guy ranked third he also benefits from #4 Andrei Arlovski losing last weekend by knockout to unranked Brett Rogers. Coming off of two straight knockouts (one of which was when he was the extreme favorite) is probably going to bump Andei out of the top 10.
At UFC 102 on August 29 we’ll get to see a bit of a delayed dream match as #5 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will fight #7 Randy Couture in what amounts to the “loser’s bracket” fight of the mini-tournament. A loss for either guy is going to send them to the bottom end (if not out) of the top 10.
Speaking of “out of the top 10” #8 Tim Sylvia lost in 10 seconds to unranked Ray Mercer in a fight where Mercer had no skills other than boxing. Sylvia not only lost but showed up over 310 pounds. Sylvia was supposed to fight Paul Buentello at Affliction 3 but I’m guessing that doesn’t happen as Tim will be fighting a medical suspension (and is 45 pounds over the heavyweight limit). I’d be shocked if he is in the top 20 by the time September arrives.
Given that 5 of the top ten will have picked up a loss by the end of August #9 Shane Carwin stands to move up significantly without even fighting. #10 Alistair Overeem is in the same boat although if his hand is healed he may be fighting on the August 15 Strikeforce card.
Relevant Fights Outside Top 10:
#13 Junior Dos Santos vs. Justin McCully
#16 Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Chris Tuchscherer
#19 Cain Velasquez defeated #12 Cheick Kongo
#14 Mirko Filipovic defeated Mustapha Al-Turk
Post your predictions of what the USA Today/SBN Consensus Rankings will look like for the Heavyweight Top 10 after this all shakes out in the comments.
— photo via mma.us