Just for fun I attempted to break the fight game down into three parts each with their own offensive and defensive area. The three parts are Striking (boxing, muay thai, etc), Ground Based Grappling (including submissions, escapes..etc), Stand-up Grappling (wrestling takedowns, clinch work, judo throws..etc). Then took these areas and ranked them in order of importance in winning fights.
1. Striking Defensive – Every fight starts standing. Without rudimentary stand up defense you are going to have trouble closing distance for any sort of grappling let alone not getting knocked out quickly.
2. Ground Based Grappling Defensive – There are a number of factors under which the fight can end up on the ground (knockdown, loss of balance, takedowns etc). The ability to avoid submissions when the fight ends up here is of high import.
3. Stand-up Grappling Defensive – This speaks largely to the ability to determine where the fight takes place. If you want to stand up and strike this keeps you from getting put on your ass, if you want to be a top position ground and pound guy…again you won’t be put on your ass…etc.
4. Strand-up Grappling Offensive – GSP has gone on record as saying that wrestling is the most important aspect of the game and I think it is hard to disagree from an offensive standpoint in the ability to SAFELY win fights. And the reason why speaks to what we’ll be getting to shortly.
5. Striking Offensive – On the scorecards landing solid shots is more important than anything else. Right or wrong, aggressive striking is worth more than submission attempts or even takedowns. Hurting someone with a punch is worth more than taking a guy down unless you can do damage afterward; and is absolutely more important than a failed submission attempt. Grappling offense is still bigger in my eyes because it can allow for complete control while allowing for minimal damage, but striking offense isn’t far behind based on scorecard impact.
6. Ground Based Grappling Offensive – On the scorecards you don’t get much credit for actively looking for submissions. I understand that this is something that gets under the skin of a lot of the hardcore fans but the truth is, it is not a part of the game that gets rewarded by the judges. This is especially true if you’re working off your back. If your plan revolves around submissions, you’d better be finishing them.
As you can see I personally value defense above all else especially in that it keeps you from getting finished and you can’t work any sort of offense if you’re asleep or tapping. Put simply; offense wins fights, defense keeps you from losing. So let’s take out the top three and just look at the offensive side of things.
Submissions are simply at a disadvantage when compared to the other offensive aspects of the game. You can work striking aggressively without landing a clean shot and win points on the scorecard, you can work wrestling based grappling without doing much else while winning the cards (Guida) but it is very hard to get points for working submissions (especially from the bottom) without locking them in.
This, to me, is the biggest reason that there is a decline in submissions in the here and now. It is more beneficial to work strikes to win points or go for top control than it is to potentially sacrifice position going for submissions especially when it is the least rewarded on the scorecards. It’s a product of the judging environment and I don’t think it is something that will change any time in the future as control and damage will always be viewed as more valuable than submission attempts. This is multiplied by the fact that submissions are such a well trained part of the game now, it takes more effort and technique to catch someone in a submission than to simply try to punch them in the face.
Then add the fact that there is an emphasis on “exciting” and the complete picture on why the submission game may be fading starts to emerge. Stand-up fights, no matter how sloppy are rewarded. Be it via a bonus or the sense that someone willing to engage in “sloppy kickboxing” will be kept around on the big stage (at least in the UFC) and there seem to be more tangible rewards to not go for submissions and engage in striking.
The last part of the picture is the more “competitive aspect.” Wrestler vs. Wrestler turns into boxing more times than it doesn’t, same with BJJ vs. BJJ…etc. There are exceptions but the majority of the time nullifying styles result in stand-up fights.
Now keep in mind that this is completely subjective and isn’t to say that the submission game is unimportant but rather to spark discussion. IF the submission aspect of our sport is losing its place (and I am with Mike Fagan that it is still a big if) it is more complicated than any single reason and largely ties into the fact that it is the most difficult area of the game through which a win can be gotten. But MMA has always been a sport of ebb and flow. As more guys like Maia and Hazelett come along and show aggressive submission games that get results others will copy that style until the nullifying style for it becomes en vogue…and so on…and so on.