There was a paradox in Pro Elite’s structure that prevented it from ever having a chance to succeed once the promotion inked a deal with CBS. It never had a chance before either, and all of the reasons for the company’s failure could fill a book, but the structural impossibility of success was the biggest problem.
In order to maintain its spot on CBS, Pro Elite needed to pull in a 2.5-3.0 overall rating with a strong showing in the 18-34 demographic. We all saw what happened in July 2008 when they tried a star-less show in Stockton: they got creamed in the ratings. In order to pull the numbers they needed, they had to put Kimbo and Gina on the same card.
However, they weren’t making any money on the CBS shows. In fact they were guaranteed money losers. As a result, they needed pay per view, and Doug Deluca made it clear many times that they hoped to run pay per view shows in 2009. However, the problem was obvious. Their only stars that could possibly draw PPV numbers were Gina and Kimbo, and if they put those fighters on PPV then they would bomb in the ratings on CBS and face cancellation.
The new CBS deal Strikeforce has procured is reportedly a better deal money wise, but nobody is going to be rolling in money as a result of it. The same problems will come up, but likely in reverse. If they need Gina, Frank, Kimbo, and Cung Le to support proper CBS numbers, they will be forced to run lesser shows on Showtime, and the ratings there will suffer. If they ever run PPV, that’s an even bigger problem for the same reason.
The obvious answer to this problem is they need more stars, and I think Strikeforce has the capability of turning guys into big stars, but it will be tough. The UFC has a massive advantage in that department as a result of their marketing machine, UFC unleashed, and all sorts of programming that helps them spread talking points and hype fighters effectively. We saw that even though millions saw Robbie Lawler and Scott Smith have a great fight on CBS in May, neither was a star at all come July, and they couldn’t carry a main event. It takes more than a lot of eyes seeing a great fight to make stars.
I am optimistic about Strikeforce because the deal appears to weigh in the direction of Showtime over CBS. It is a Showtime deal, and CBS has the option to order up to four shows a year. With 10 shows on Showtime scheduled for 2009 and 16 in 2010, they have more than enough regular programming to keep all their fighters busy and build a steady and growing audience that recognizes the fighters.
The Kimbo-Tank fight drew a very solid 522,000 viewers on Showtime, while Le/Shamrock drew below 300,000. If they can build up to a regular audience of 600,000-700,000 viewers for their shows, they will keep Showtime thrilled and have a strong base from which to pull pay per view buyers in from.
I recognize the value in getting a lot of eyes on Strikeforce once or twice for a big CBS show in order to advertise the Showtime series, but I don’t think a deal with 4 shows a year on CBS does anyone any good in the end. It’s telling that the biggest fight Strikeforce could put together in 2008, Cung Le v. Frank Shamrock, pulled in such a low rating. I suspect a rematch on CBS wouldn’t fare much better unless it was anchored by a Kimbo Slice or Gina Carano fight. They have a lot of building to do before they can simply jump onto Network TV and succeed.
Rather than add shows on CBS, the more valuable addition would be regular programming on Showtime in the form of a reality show or fighter biographies.