As the 2009 PPV picture becomes clearer, it looks like the UFC will easily smash their performance in the same period in 2008.
In this post I’m going to go ahead and make advanced buyrate predictions–a forecast if you will. We can come back and see how I did when the information is out.
UFC 93: I think this show probably did in the 215,000 buy range, putting it right there with Hughes-Alves and below Penn-Stevenson. It’s possible this did more based on coming off a big buy at 92, but I don’t think so.
UFC 94: I suspect this will do very well. It will break the old record, but I don’t know if it’ll beat the supposed 92 record. I predict 1.1 million buys.
UFC 96: Jackson-Jardine is a weak main event. Quinton Jackson is a draw when he’s in a big match, but he’s not the Chuck type that can draw against anyone. However, with a 5 week break between PPV’s, people may be willing to part with money. I think it will do 310,000 buys.
UFC 97: This is Shogun-Chuck and Anderson-Leites. Assuming they don’t replace Leites with a better opponent that can draw, I think this will do well. Chuck did in the 475 range against Jardine and Rashad, and while Shogun had a bad fight this isn’t hard to build, Chuck is still a big name, and all the local press in Montreal will push the buyrate up in Canada. I think it will do 475,000 buys.
UFC 98: This is almost surely going to be Lesnar-Mir and Hughes-Serra over Memorial Day weekend. The potential box office on this show is just gigantic, both fights are such easy sells. I’d almost like to see a 24/7 for each of these fights, though it probably wouldn’t be worth it in costs. I think they’ll do it for Lesnar-Mir though, and I think this fight will do 1.1 million buys.
Over the first five months of 2009, I expect 3,200,000 buys. In the same period last year, the company sold 2,150,000 buys over that amount of shows. I think my predictions are actually fairly conservative. UFC 94, 97, and 98 could all do significantly better than I projected if they get the right kind of build and press for the fights.
If I end up correct or even close, these numbers suggest that claims of oversaturation are far overstated. They had to make 95 a Spike show, but that was just an extra show compared to last year, and while 96 will suffer, it won’t do much worse than Anderson Silva’s fights last year. As a whole, their PPV business is thriving while others are cutting back, a testament to the brand loyalty built by the UFC during such hard economic times.