In late 2007 and early 2008, a mantra developed that the UFC could not hold on to power in the industry for long. Fans would demand to see the best fight the best, and eventually the UFC would be forced to co-promote. I never believed this, but when it looked like Randy Couture vs. Fedor Emelianenko would imminently take place on another organization’s card, and Tito Ortiz was making noise about going to CBS, even I had my doubts.
Whereas 2007 was a year of expansion and aggression for the UFC, 2008 was a year of consolidation. They effectively smashed EliteXC by stepping on the organization’s throat when it was down, and did the same to Affliction by bringing back Randy Couture and driving them out of Las Vegas. I’d be shocked if we see more than three shows from Affliction. Early indicators suggest UFC 92 broke the 600,000 buy mark, which means they comfortably set the all-time PPV revenue record in 2008.
The UFC is the future of Mixed Martial Arts. In 2009 they will shut off the only remaining path to competing with them: international exposure. Before the UFC went international, there was always a possibility that a group could catch fire in Europe, create a number of stars, and then bring an established brand over to the U.S. This door is being closed as we speak. The video game will result in even more fan consolidation.
The only important commodities in American MMA that Zuffa doesn’t control are Fedor Emelianenko and women’s MMA (Gina Carano). They can achieve full consolidation without picking up either, but the game is up once those are both taken care of. Fedor is meaningless in the U.S., but he is the greatest fighter of all time and it doesn’t make the UFC look good to have a champion that is clearly not as good as a guy outside of the organization. Gina is a big draw, but without an outlet she’s no threat, and Dana already has expressed interest in her.
There are numerous upsides and downsides to this reality which have been debated for years, but the bottom line is that Zuffa achieved its dominance through free competition. By delivering a consistent, high-quality product, they’ve earned a degree of consumer trust and name recognition that will be nearly impossible for competitors to overcome. New companies will come and go, but in order to compete with Zuffa you need to be able to compete with their revenue, and I don’t see anyone doing that.
Even if ESPN all of a sudden decided to jump into the MMA game and compete with the UFC, it still wouldn’t mean anything in the long term. It would likely just end up creating a lot more UFC fans, and a lot more stars for the UFC to take once ESPN makes them into valuable commodities. The market opportunities in MMA remain vast going forward, but there is no market for a national competitor to Zuffa.