While the recession is a good reason for slowing live ticket sales to UFC and boxing events, I am not sure it is actually any kind of excuse for buyrates. If the show tonight is below expectations, it will be blamed on the recession. Similarly, the UFC has tried to blame the Lesnar-Couture buyrate on the recession. I don’t buy it.
First of all, the real number, which looks like it is 775-800k, is an incredible buyrate. If you compare the buzz for that fight to the anticipation before Liddell-Ortiz II, it’s really not even close. I don’t know anybody in the MMA press that really believed the show was doing 1.2 million buys. The UFC did not do a good job hyping the event at all, and it probably would have done 650-675 if not for the major ESPN push.
The movie industry so far is having an amazing fourth quarter despite the recession:
“Movie theatres are seeing double-digit growth in box office revenues and high single-digit growth in attendance so far this quarter…”
It’s not as if this year is just loaded with hits and last year wasn’t. Escapism is a big part of any recession, and just like families will go to movies because it’s cheap, the same 4-5 people splitting a fight is not that expensive. It may lead to some doubling up or going to bars, but I don’t believe the recession will have a significant effect on pay per view purchases.
It does create a convenient refrain though. If De La Hoya tonight does 2 million buys, it will be an “amazing number especially considering the recession.” If UFC 92 does 400,000 buys, it can be blamed on the recession. Hollywood is famously counter-cyclical because people rely on entertainment during recessions to get away from reality. It is happening again this time. I don’t believe we have any reason yet to suspect the fight industry is being affected any differently.
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research’s much-publicized report, the United States has been in recession since December 2007. Thus, a record year on PPV obtained without top names like Liddell and Couture for the most part was done during a recession. The UFC will likely crack 5.7 million total buys this year, all with a higher price than the year before, setting a significant revenue record for the sport. I don’t think it’s a superhuman feat, but if we’re really taking that outlook then an entire year of buyrates needs to be assessed taking that into consideration.