Last night I attended “Affliction: Banned” at the Honda Center, and overall it was a very good live show. The aspects of the show that some complained about–the announcing, the microphones, and the production–did not affect the live experience at all.
One thing that really struck me is that the hardcore MMA fan base has grown significantly. If you look at the traffic for MMA websites, you see an amazing level of growth across the board. Many of the people that used to be casual fans are now hardcore fans, and the hardcore fan base may now be big enough to support a promotion.
I expect this PPV to do in the area of 85,000 buys. I thought it would be much lower a few weeks ago, but the final push in advertising was very strong, and the press coverage really helped. Even though that number will be seen as a success, it is not. Even Tom Atencio has admitted they need 250,000 buys to break even. However, it would be a solid first show, and if they are willing to take a few hits to build up a brand name, they can make it.
Affliction is the first group that I think can legitimately compete with the UFC. They can’t match them in size, production, or resources, but they can put on big cards headlined by the best fighter in the world.
The best news for Affliction was the way Arlovski and Barnett won. They created future contenders for the WAMMA title, and both men came off like stars. Arlovski is clearly the bigger name and star right now, and the next show should be headlined by Arlovski vs. Fedor assuming Randy Couture cannot fight. Barnett could use some more time to be built up.
Speaking of Randy Couture, I expect legal action to come as a result of the end of that show. Although it was not clearly stated, the implication was there that he was promoting a future Affliction fight with Fedor. I don’t think they’ll go after Randy, I think they’ll sue Affliction. I guess we’ll see soon enough.
Adam Swift reports that over 700 bars ordered this show. That is good news, but it shouldn’t be directly compared to the UFC numbers. It’s hard to do a direct comparison on charges because it depends on occupancy and other factors, but Affliction definitely charged less according to a few bar managers I spoke with.
One area that needs big improvement is fighter entrances. The videos on the fighters were weak, and the entrances did not create the same type of theatrical environment you get live at UFC shows. Fedor’s entrance reaction was way lower than you’d think simply because he did not have that kind of solo, lights out entrance.
Overall, I think the show was a success. Fedor looked like a killer, and they built up some contenders. A lot rides on the buy number, and I will be skeptical of any number they put out, because they’re not going to release a number that means the show was a flop.
At this point, they need a TV show to get their stars over. It’s hard to maintain momentum for four months between shows without something regularly reminding people to care. For all the unanswered questions and problems, this was still an exciting and good show live. We should know a lot more within a few weeks.