I’ve been reading picks for UFC 86 all around the internet for an hour now, and I am yet to come across a compelling case for Forrest winning this fight. I saw that Frank Trigg picked Forrest, so I kept listening for a good reason, but in the end all he could muster was the same thing others have said: Forrest just works so hard, he has so much heart, he has so much heart, and he will prove that determination pays off.
If Forrest is able to beat Quinton, it will be because of a combination of skill and heart. It will take an incredible amount of skill for Forrest to use reach and footwork against Rampage more effectively than Chuck Liddell could in their first fight. It will take an exceptional amount of skill to either avoid Rampage’s takedowns, or be the first guy to submit Rampage since Sakuraba.
It kind of bothers me that people chalk up all of Forrest’s accomplishments to his heart and hard work alone. One of the primary factors that got him the win over Shogun was his defensive guard. Shogun was able to get Forrest down multiple times, but he was never able to do any damage on the ground, and he gassed himself out spending minutes trying to pass guard and failing. That was an incredible performance, and it doesn’t do Forrest’s skill justice to act like he simply won because he had more heart and better cardio than Shogun. He pulled off an omoplata off Shogun to reverse from the bottom, a move that helped him win a round. His heart may have kept him in the right mindset to pull it off, but the skill it takes to pull that off against a guy like Shogun shouldn’t be ignored.
To win tomorrow, Forrest will need a lot more than heart and cardio. His cardio is legendary, but he’s never had a cardio performance as good as Quinton’s against Dan Henderson, where he emerged the fresher man after five rounds of intense wrestling with a world class wrestler. Further, it’s not fair to Quinton for everyone to talk as if he has no heart or desire to succeed. He was all but written off by hardcore fans two years ago, and he didn’t climb back up the mountain without heart. Many lesser men would have collapsed and faded after the brutal knockouts he took.
If Forrest Griffin wins tomorrow, it’ll be because of a combination of fighting skill, his will to win, and his cardio. Discounting his skill does him a disservice, and also does a disservice to the guys he beats.
All that being said, heart and cardio obviously matter. If it is a close fight going into the fifth, those things may carry the day. All this being said, I don’t think Forrest has the skills to win this fight, but if anyone can make the case without using his heart and cardio as a crutch, I want to hear it.