One of the least talked about matches on this weekend’s undercard is Justin McCully vs. Gabriel Gonzaga. Just a year or so ago, the MMA blogosphere was ready to crown Gonzaga the next Fedor, but ever since his disappointing loss to Fabricio Werdum in January, everyone is writing him off. He didn’t just lose, he gave up in the face of pressure, and showed an (apparent) lack of heart that has shaken everyone’s confidence in him.
Gonzaga is being given an easy rebound fight, but I don’t think it is as much of a slam dunk as the odds suggest. He comes in as a -600 favorite, and I absolutely can’t imagine laying down that kind of money in his favor for this fight. I expect this to be an exceedingly boring fight with lots of clinch work up against the cage. McCully has a sturdy chin, a black belt in BJJ, and trains in a solid camp. He won’t be a complete walkover, and he probably will last past a round. If McCully can make this a clinching match against the fence, he may be able to sap Gonzaga’s will.
I fully expect Gonzaga to take this, but I think the odds are way too long. McCully is a competent fighter that bested Antoni Hardonk through sheer grit, and the same kind of performance could earn him a decision win over Gonzaga. At +450, it may be worth adding him to a parlay of favorites for the payoff possibility.